Carbon Brief Forecast: If Harris wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?
๏ธ Politics๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US PoliticsDemocratic PartyKamala HarrisClimate change
Basic
13
แน€1.1k
2031
69%
chance

If Harris wins the US 2024 election, what will the United States' total carbon footprint be in 2030?

Carbon Brief estimates that a Trump win could add 4 billion tons of CO2 to US emissions by 2030:

I will use Our World in Data's Annual CO2 emissions dataset. In 2022, OWID reported a total emissions of 5.06 billion tons. Global Carbon Budget estimates a 3% decrease for 2023 to 4.9 billion tons, although official numbers are not yet reported.

If Harris does not win the US 2024 elections, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:

If the total number for 2030 is 4.5 billion tons or lower, this market resolves YES.

If the total number for 2030 is higher than 4.5 billion tons, this market resolves NO.

I'll use the exact number reported in the table view, not the rounded one that is seen on hover. This market will remain open until the number is added to OWID, or the backing data source, Global Carbon Budget (https://globalcarbonbudget.org/).

Related:

Get แน€1,000 play money
1 Comment
13 Holders
15 Trades
Sort by:

I'm kinda tempted to create a market like...

"Carbon super brief forecast: if Harris, lots of carbon?"

Related questions