OR '24 Election

A small experiment in seeing how well Manifold is able to track real-time public sentiment for various statewide elections in Oregon. Polls out here in the boondocks can have error margins as wide as the Columbia Gorge and prediction markets offer a way for those who don't use landlines to express their opinion. There are several different markets, and I've tried to break them down into respective categories.

Have you traded on any 2024 Oregon Election markets?POLL

Yes, and I currently live in Oregon

Yes, and I currently live outside Oregon

No, I have not traded on those markets

Election Meta

Plus

Will the 2024 Oregon voter turnout be higher than 2020 Oregon voter turnout?82% chance

Basic

What will the voter turnout rate be for the '24 General Election in Oregon?

28%

< 80%

18%

80% - 82%

42%

83% - 85%

6%

86% - 88%

See 1 more answer

Basic

Will Democrats maintain their Oregon trifecta / triplex post-2024 General Election?85% chance

Plus

Will Oregon voters pass or fail HB 2004 (Ranked Choice Voting) and by what margin?

1.4%

Pass; 90 - 100%

3%

Pass; 80 - 89%

5%

Pass; 70 - 79%

26%

Pass; 60 - 69%

See 6 more answers

Basic

Will Oregon voters approve HJR 16 (Legislative Impeachment of State Executives)?74% chance

Basic

Will Oregon voters pass or fail HJR 16 (Legislative Impeachment of State Executives) and by what margin?

3%

Pass; 90 - 100%

6%

Pass; 80 - 89%

17%

Pass; 70 - 79%

18%

Pass; 60 - 69%

See 6 more answers

Basic

Will Oregon voters approve SJR 34 (Independent Public Service Compensation Commission)?31% chance

Basic

Will Oregon voters pass or fail SJR 34 (Independent Public Service Compensation Commission) and by what margin?

4%

Pass; 90 - 100%

4%

Pass; 80 - 89%

4%

Pass; 70 - 79%

13%

Pass; 60 - 69%

See 6 more answers

Basic

Will IP 17 (Oregon Rebate 2) qualify for the Oregon '24 ballot?YES

Basic

Will IP 9 (Honest Elections) qualify for the Oregon '24 ballot?NO

Plus

Will IP 11 (STAR Voting for Oregon) qualify for the Oregon '24 ballot?NO

Federal Legislative Elected Officials

Basic

Who will be elected Oregon's US Representative, 1st District?

84%

Suzanne Bonamici (Democrat) [Incumbent]

17%

Bob Todd (Republican)

9%

Courtney E Casgraux (Democrat)

7%

Jeff D Perkins (Republican)

See 1 more answer

Basic

Who will be elected Oregon US Representative, 2nd District?

83%

Cliff Bentz (Republican) [Incumbent]

26%

Dan Ruby (Democrat)

2%

Steve William Laible (Democrat)

1.7%

Write-In

See 1 more answer

Basic

Who will be elected Oregon US Representative, 3rd District?

45%

Teresa Orwig (Republican)

45%

Gary L Dye (Republican)

45%

Eddy Morales (Democrat)

41%

Maxine E Dexter (Democrat)

See 7 more answers

Basic

Who will be elected Oregon US Representative, 4th District?

50%

Monique DeSpain (Republican)

50%

Amy L Ryan Courser (Republican)

50%

Val Hoyle (Democrat)

18%

Write-In

Basic

Who will be elected Oregon US Representative, 5th District?

73%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Republican) [Incumbent]

34%

Janelle S Bynum (Democrat)

20%

Jamie McLeod-Skinner (Democrat)

1.3%

Write-In

Basic

Who will be elected Oregon US Representative, 6th District?

63%

Andrea Salinas (Democrat) [Incumbent]

22%

Mike Erickson (Republican)

20%

David Russ (Republican)

17%

Cody Reynolds (Democrat)

See 3 more answers

State Executive Elected Officials

Basic

Who will be elected Oregon Secretary of State?

57%

Tobias Read (Democrat)

44%

Paul Damien Wells (Democrat)

42%

James Jim Crary (Democrat)

35%

Tim McCloud (Republican)

See 5 more answers

Basic

Who will be elected Oregon State Treasurer?

49%

Jeff Gudman (Democrat)

49%

Elizabeth Steiner (Democrat)

45%

Brian J Boquist (Republican)

5%

Write-In

State Senate Elected Officials

State Representative Elected Officials

State Judiciary

See more questions:

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