Will Oregon voters pass or fail HB 2004 (Ranked Choice Voting) and by what margin?
Basic
21
711
Nov 6
1.8%
Pass; 90 - 100%
4%
Pass; 80 - 89%
7%
Pass; 70 - 79%
32%
Pass; 60 - 69%
37%
Pass; 50%+1 - 59%
11%
Fail; 50 - 59%
2%
Fail; 60 - 69%
1.8%
Fail; 70 - 79%
1.6%
Fail; 80 - 89%
1.4%
Fail; 90 - 100%

Background

On 25 June 2023, the Oregon House and Senate passed House Bill 2004 and referred it to the Oregon voters for approval. The measure would implement ranked choice voting for federal and statewide offices, including the president, U.S. senator, U.S. representative, governor, secretary of state, attorney general, state treasurer, and commissioner of labor and industries. RCV would be used in partisan primaries and general elections for these offices. The “final determination” of the presidential vote count reported to the NPVIC is the aggregation of the last round. [0] [1]

There have been four ballot measures related to various state-wide electoral system changes between 1908 and 2023. Three measures were defeated and one was approved [2][3]

  • Measure 65 (2008)

    The measure would have implemented a top-two primary system where all candidates appear on one ballot and the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to a generation election. It was defeated with 65.9% of voters opposing it.

  • Measure Nos 348-349 (1914)

    The measure would have provided that each voter can vote for one candidate in state legislative elections and that the 60 legislative candidates who receive the most votes from across the state are elected. It was defeated with 77.5% of voters opposing it.

  • Measure Nos 360-361 (1910)

    The measure would have amended the state constitution to require proportional election of members of the state Legislative from the state at large, among other changes. It was defeated with 54.5% of voters opposing it.

  • Measure Nos 328-329 (1908)

    The measure added Section 16 (Election by Plurality; Proportional Representation) to Article II of the state constitution to allow for alternative state electoral systems in the state, such as proportional representation or elections in which voters make direct or indirect expression of first, second, or additional choices. It was approved with 58.8% of the vote.

[0] HB 2004 Full Text [PDF]

[1] HB 2004 Legislative History

[2] Oregon Blue Book "Introduction and Measure Listings, 1902-2020 [PDF]

[3] Ballotpedia Oregon Ranked-Choice Voting for Federal and State Elections Measure (2024)

See also: Oregon 2024 Election Dashboard


Market Resolution

This is a forecasting market. Market closes when polls close (8 PM PST)

The market will resolve to one answer based on

  • If the ballot measure passes or fails

  • The margin by which it passes or fails

Margin will be determined by the percentage of voters that were for or against the measure.

(Majority Voters / Total Votes) = Margin

The market will resolve N/A if:

  • The ballot measure is withdrawn

The market will resolve based on certified results from the Oregon Secretary of State. Market closes on 5 Nov 2024; market resolution may be delayed until data is released. Oregon Law requires that any ballot measure receive an affirmative majority so in case of a 50/50 tie, the measure will have failed. [0]

[0] ORS 254.065 (2)


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Disclaimer

I do not bet on markets I create in order to avoid motivated reasoning. In the event that I am unable or unavailable to resolve the market, the market may be resolved by Manifold Mods. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log.

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Pity it's not STAR Voting statewide. 😭

@Snarflak Americans will try literally anything before accepting that party-list proportional representation is the best...

@Snarflak and STAR is also incompatible with the NPVIC 😉 it only works with FPTP.

bought Ṁ40 Pass; 80 - 89% NO

@BrunoParga Will NPVIC ever happen?

@BrunoParga Sometimes I like PR, and sometimes it sounds like a bad idea...

@Snarflak

Sometimes I like PR, and sometimes it sounds like a bad idea...

Worse than the two-party system?

Will NPVIC ever happen?

Metaculus gives it an 18% before 2030.

Comment hidden

@BrunoParga

Worse than the two-party system?

Doesn't it just result in a two-faction system instead? As long as legislation is still passed using majority rule I'm not sure it's that much different.

Electing the whole legislature using a consensus system would result in representation of different ideas and geographic areas, but without the extremes and polarization of FPTP or PR. A bunch of more-or-less centrists who mostly get along with each other (and whose positions evolve as the electorate does) instead of a bunch of polarizing diverse reps who view each other as enemies and fight about everything.

I dunno.

@Snarflak yeah sorry for telling ya stuff you already know. Realized that after I posted my comment. 😅

@LukasDay Also it would probably just go down like Seattle, with the better-known method beating the better-designed one.

Unlike Maine and Alaska, Oregon is in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. The Compact is incompatible with instant-runoff and any other forms of ranked choice voting – you can't validly aggregate ranked choice ballots and FPTP ones.

Do you know how this bill interacts with the Compact, if voters approve IRV? Does Oregon revert to FPTP for Presidential elections if/when the Compact goes into force? Or does the state leave the Compact?

Or, maybe most likely, did the people whose job is literally to think about this kind of thing simply fail to do so?

Got an answer, it's the last round of counting that gets sent to the NPVIC.

@BrunoParga - thanks for pointing this out. I've added a link to the full text and a line regarding the NPVIC in the description.

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