Background

On 25 June 2023, the Oregon House and Senate passed House Bill 2004 and referred it to the Oregon voters for approval. The measure would implement ranked choice voting for federal and statewide offices, including the president, U.S. senator, U.S. representative, governor, secretary of state, attorney general, state treasurer, and commissioner of labor and industries. RCV would be used in partisan primaries and general elections for these offices. The “final determination” of the presidential vote count reported to the NPVIC is the aggregation of the last round. [0] [1]

There have been four ballot measures related to various state-wide electoral system changes between 1908 and 2023. Three measures were defeated and one was approved [2][3]

• Measure 65 (2008)

  The measure would have implemented a top-two primary system where all candidates appear on one ballot and the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to a generation election. It was defeated with 65.9% of voters opposing it.

• Measure Nos 348-349 (1914)

  The measure would have provided that each voter can vote for one candidate in state legislative elections and that the 60 legislative candidates who receive the most votes from across the state are elected. It was defeated with 77.5% of voters opposing it.

• Measure Nos 360-361 (1910)

  The measure would have amended the state constitution to require proportional election of members of the state Legislative from the state at large, among other changes. It was defeated with 54.5% of voters opposing it.

• Measure Nos 328-329 (1908)

  The measure added Section 16 (Election by Plurality; Proportional Representation) to Article II of the state constitution to allow for alternative state electoral systems in the state, such as proportional representation or elections in which voters make direct or indirect expression of first, second, or additional choices. It was approved with 58.8% of the vote.

[0] HB 2004 Full Text [PDF]

[1] HB 2004 Legislative History

[2] Oregon Blue Book "Introduction and Measure Listings, 1902-2020 [PDF]

[3] Ballotpedia Oregon Ranked-Choice Voting for Federal and State Elections Measure (2024)

See also: Oregon 2024 Election Dashboard

Market Resolution

This is a forecasting market. Market closes when polls close (8 PM PST)

The market will resolve to one answer based on

• If the ballot measure passes or fails

• The margin by which it passes or fails

Margin will be determined by the percentage of voters that were for or against the measure.

(Majority Voters / Total Votes) = Margin

The market will resolve N/A if:

• The ballot measure is withdrawn

The market will resolve based on certified results from the Oregon Secretary of State. Market closes on 5 Nov 2024; market resolution may be delayed until data is released. Oregon Law requires that any ballot measure receive an affirmative majority so in case of a 50/50 tie, the measure will have failed. [0]

[0] ORS 254.065 (2)

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Disclaimer

I do not bet on markets I create in order to avoid motivated reasoning. In the event that I am unable or unavailable to resolve the market, the market may be resolved by Manifold Mods. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log.