Will IP 17 (Oregon Rebate 2) qualify for the Oregon '24 ballot?
4
78
110
Jun 29
52%
chance

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Background

The petition requires 117,173 verified signatures to qualify for the ballot. As of 22 Dec 2023, the petition has reported a total of 55,604 signatures [0]. Petitioners are require to submit signatures monthly. The last deadline to submit signatures is 28 Jun 2024. 

Update: As of 30 Jan 2024, the petition has reported a total of 56,845 signatures (49%)

Update: As of 28 March 2024, the petition has reported a total of 67,822 signatures (58%)

Update: As of 29 April 2024, the petition has reported 82,341 signatures (70%)

[0] OR SOS IP 17 Reporting Info


Ballot Title: Increases highest corporate minimum taxes; distributes revenue to eligible individuals; state replaces reduced federal benefits

Ballot Summary: Current law requires corporations to pay higher of either tax on taxable income or corporate minimum tax. Except S corporations, minimum tax amount determined by tax bracket based on corporation's Oregon sales; minimum tax capped at $100,000 for $100,000,000 or more in sales. Beginning 2025, measure removes minimum tax cap; increases minimum tax on all corporations with Oregon sales exceeding $25,000,000 by imposing additional tax of 3% for sales above $25,000,000. Measure directs Department of Revenue to equally distribute increased revenue (minus certain costs)  to all individuals residing more than 200 days annually in Oregon. Revenue distribution does not affect individual eligibility for state benefits; measure requires replacement of reduced federal benefits if distribution negatively affects individual's benefits under any need-based programs. Other provisions.


Market Resolution

Market resolves YES if: 

  • IP 17 successfully gathers the requied signatures and appears on the 2024 Primary Election ballot

Market resolves NO if: 

  • IP 17 fails to gather the required signatures

  • IP 17 is withdrawn by the petitioners

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Monthly signatures submitted. Signature count is 70% of target need to qualify for ballot.

@traders - updated signature counts. Here's a chart of total signatures with a linear regression out to June

@LukasDay @traders - updated signature counts. Here's a chart of total signatures with a linear regression out to June

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