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Lantern Bioworks

Defying Cavity: Lantern Bioworks FAQ
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P Prize Market
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Will Lantern Bioworks be accepted to the next cohort of YCombinator?NO
Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?21% chance
Updates on Lumina Probiotic
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Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]
18%
Advance of approximately the same magnitude as fluoride
66%
Good on balance, comparable to other beneficial dental treatments
15%
Doesn’t work in its current form, but could easily be modified into something that does
36%
Doesn’t work at all and never will
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Mini
Will someone who tweeted about Lantern Bioworks before April get a cavity with the product before 2025?37% chance
When will Lantern fulfill its first pre-order and ship BSC3-L1 to a customer?
22%
July 2024
38%
August 2024
24%
September - December 2024
18%
Not in 2024 or Never
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Does Lantern Bioworks' product to prevent cavities also eliminate "morning breath"?37% chance
Will Lantern Bioworks be accepted to the next cohort of YCombinator if they apply?NO
Will the scientific consensus in 2030 be that Lantern Bioworks' Lumina Probiotic is effective at reducing cavities?53% chance
Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2028?16% chance
Will Lantern Biotech get sued for over $1M by 2029?36% chance
Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2028?37% chance
Conditional on Aella getting new cavities, will 10000+ people get Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment?
42%
Aella gets new cavities; >= 10000 people get treatment
7%
Aella gets new cavities; < 10000 people get treatment
36%
Aella does not get new cavities; >= 10000 people get treatment
16%
Aella does not get new cavities; < 10000 people get treatment
[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?75% chance