Will Lantern Bioworks be accepted to the next cohort of YCombinator?
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300
841k
resolved Jun 3
Resolved
NO

Lantern is planning to apply to YCombinator. Question resolves as "no" if they don't.

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James's comment just reminded me of this market, and indeed, Lantern did not make it into YC this time. (Although they did get an interview!) Perhaps a future cohort!

@beccapao 😭

bought Ṁ50 YES

What are people trading on now?

i have a prior here that it doesn't make sense for yc to back a biotech company. therefore, i put this at < 5%.

@ismellpillows How many without an app, recurring revenue, or a Medicare billing code?

@CateHall 99% of gamblers quit before they win big

@ismellpillows wow, super interesting. a lot of the recent ones look more like supply companies, but some of the alumni look like actual biotech companies.

my variance is still too high to wager. i have no clue how biotech works for yc if they can’t be sure if the tech is real though.

Assuming they applied on time, they'll hear back by tomorrow https://www.ycombinator.com/apply

@CateHall They'll "hear back" by tomorrow; I suspect they have gotten an interview based on Jamie Wahls' trades.

bought Ṁ100 YES at 21%

Does Jamie Wahls have insider information that they got invited to an interview or something? Otherwise, if they haven't already been invited, they're probably not getting in. Odds of getting to the next stage go down with time and the batch is starting in a month.

Doesn't pass the sniff test, why aren't the publications linked on the science section of the website? Even after searching these publications the first two are from 1987, and the third is in a different language from the first two (?!) There's a lot of big claims on the site and none of the research shown to back them up...

bought Ṁ5 YES

@EstMtz which publications and site?

@EstMtz thanks 👍

stefanieboughtṀ222NO

222 = potato gods, message from gnon

Cate Hallopened aṀ25,000 NO at 20% order

@CateHall Insider info? 👀

@Joshua who is she, what's the connection that makes her an insider?

@Joshua No insider info. I just don't see the case for VC returns in a healthcare product without a Medicare billing code attached to it.

opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 28% order

Take my limit order

reposted

@traders We're making this a prize market! Enjoy the free mana, if you're right!

(We have applied)

2 traders bought Ṁ390 YES
filled a Ṁ3,000 NO at 15% order

@JamieWahls Might I ask, what are you guys hoping to get out of Y-Combinator? You seem like you already have the product.

I've made a market based on Scott Alexander's post today: