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—- AI Capabilities—

LLMs have a few different shortcomings :

  • Hallucinations

  • Context Windows

  • Mathematical and Logical Problems :

Ṁ33k
Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (2023)
50%
Ṁ33k
Ṁ1.2k
Will Mira's main GPT-4 Sudoku market ever again drop below 50% and stay there for at least 24 hours?
NO
Ṁ1.2k
Ṁ1.5k
[Math test 1] What will GPT-4 Vision score on the Mathematics section of JEE Advanced paper? (out of 60) ($200M sub)
15%
<0 (i.e. negative score)
29%
0-10
16%
10-20
12%
20-30
See 4 more answers
Ṁ1.5k
Ṁ1.2k
[Math test 2] What will GPT-4 Vision score on the Mathematics section of JEE Advanced paper? (out of 60) ($200M sub)
27%
<0 (i.e. negative score)
24%
0-10
21%
10-20
12%
20-30
See 4 more answers
Ṁ1.2k
Ṁ1k
[Physics test 2] What will GPT-4 Vision score on the Physics section of JEE Advanced paper? (out of 60) ($150M sub)
34%
<0 (i.e. negative score)
17%
0-10
18%
10-20
8%
20-30
See 4 more answers
Ṁ1k
Ṁ1.2k
[Chemistry test 1] What will GPT-4 Vision score on the Chemistry section of JEE Advanced paper? (out of 60) ($150M sub)
9%
<0 (i.e. negative score)
17%
0-10
27%
10-20
11%
20-30
See 4 more answers
Ṁ1.2k
Ṁ1.2k
[Chemistry test 2] What will GPT-4 Vision score on the Chemistry section of JEE Advanced paper? (out of 60) ($150M sub)
7%
<0 (i.e. negative score)
14%
0-10
36%
10-20
13%
20-30
See 4 more answers
Ṁ1.2k
Ṁ1.2k
Will GPT-4 fine-tuning be available by EOY?
NO
Ṁ1.2k
Ṁ1.7k
Will a large GPT-4 equivalent competitor model be revealed by the end of 2023?
NO
Ṁ1.7k
Ṁ730
Is GPT-4 best? (2023)
YES
Ṁ730
Ṁ170
Will hallucinations (made up facts) created by LLMs go below 1% on specific corpora before 2025?
38% chance
Ṁ170
Ṁ685
Will LLM hallucinations be down to human-expert rate within months?
NO
Ṁ685
Ṁ1k
Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?
13% chance
Ṁ1k
Ṁ1.9k
Will we get hallucination rates down to human-expert levels by May 2024?
NO
Ṁ1.9k
Ṁ550
Will A.I., "Hallucinate Significantly Less," by the End of 2023?
NO
Ṁ550
Ṁ590
Will there be a version of GPT4 with a context window of 1 million tokens this year?
NO
Ṁ590
Ṁ410
Will any LLM have roughly GPT-3-level losses with a context window of at least 50,000 tokens before April of 2024?
N/A
Ṁ410
Ṁ1k
Will Safari include a chatbot at end of 2024?
NO
Ṁ1k
Ṁ1k
Will any LLM be able to multiply together arbitrary decimal numbers by the end of 2027?
65% chance
Ṁ1k
Ṁ270
Will Firefox include a chatbot at end of 2023?
NO
Ṁ270