Will GPT-4 fine-tuning be available by EOY?
resolved Jan 10

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predicted NO

Inactive creator, resolving NO.

Whilst we didn't get clarification from the creator, it makes sense to not include an "experimental" feature that you have to apply to get approved to use as "available".

predicted NO

Resolution please @getby

predicted NO

@getby clarification please, see points of confusion below.

Is a general release necessary, or is a limited/experimental release with a waitlist sufficient?

predicted YES
bought Ṁ10 of YES

@ZincCat D’you think that counts? Imo it can be argued, not sure what the spirit of the market was

@getby to whom does GPT-4 fine-tuning need to be available for a YES resolution?

bought Ṁ5 of NO

I'm wondering now after the news of Sam Altman being fired if this was the disagreement between safety and profit that is theorized to be playing out at OpenAI. Fine tuning gpt4 could potentially degrade safety training, but would be extremely profitable.

@getby does it have to be generally available, or will you resolve YES on the basis of an early access program that only lucky people get invited to?

predicted NO
bought Ṁ10 of NO

Metaculus is quite high, not sure why they have so much confidence it won't be delivered late https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17377/openai-finetuning-api-before-2024/

predicted NO

10 Days difference to this one

bought Ṁ60 of YES
bought Ṁ5 of NO

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