Is GPT-4 best? (2023)
—- AI Capabilities—•AI•New Year's Resolutions 2024
40
312
Ṁ730
resolved Jan 4
Resolved
YES

What percent of the time will it be the best model out there?

Get Ṁ200 play money

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Will any open source model (Gigacasting's favourite) match GPT-4 in 2024?

predicted YES

Resolving 100% (YES). To my knowledge it is the consensus view that GPT-4 remains unsurpassed.

bought Ṁ150 of YES

What are you doing @Mira

Even if GPT4.5 comes out today, a) it's arguably GPT-4 still and b) if it's not, it'll only be "best" for 4% of the year and this will resolve to 96%.

Unless there's some other model you think is better than GPT-4 already?

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington It'll get a separate entry on lmsys, the resolution source for this market.

sold Ṁ109 of NO

@chrisjbillington You're right about the percentage resolution though. That's a genuine mistake.

bought Ṁ180 of YES

@Mira I am also interested in how you know from a gigacasting market what the resolution source is!

predicted YES

It's so weird we have such a fast pace that something as good as gpt-4 (smh how fast we get used to stuff) compared to everything else, isn't even predicted to be the best for 9months

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