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Will any open source model (Gigacasting's favourite) match GPT-4 in 2024?

Resolving 100% (YES). To my knowledge it is the consensus view that GPT-4 remains unsurpassed.

What are you doing @Mira

Even if GPT4.5 comes out today, a) it's arguably GPT-4 still and b) if it's not, it'll only be "best" for 4% of the year and this will resolve to 96%.

Unless there's some other model you think is better than GPT-4 already?

@chrisjbillington It'll get a separate entry on lmsys, the resolution source for this market.

@chrisjbillington You're right about the percentage resolution though. That's a genuine mistake.

@Mira I am also interested in how you know from a gigacasting market what the resolution source is!

It's so weird we have such a fast pace that something as good as gpt-4 (smh how fast we get used to stuff) compared to everything else, isn't even predicted to be the best for 9months