Prize Markets 

Iran President

Trump Trial

Israel-Gaza

"Not-E3" Game News

Lantern Bioworks

Trump VP

OpenAI

Taylor Swift

WWDC 2024

Polling

Debate

Ilya

NBA Playoffs

Close Races

WEWHF

Manifest

Twitter

Drake v Lamar

TikTok Ban

Legal Weed

One Piece

Music AI Race

TV Props

ACX 2024 

Hard Forkasts

🤖 AI

Meta-Forecasting

🖥️ Technology

Social Media

Threads overtakes X in daily users and becomes the leading text-based social network.

'base':13 'becom':8 'daili':5 'lead':10 'network':15 'overtak':2 'social':14 'text':12 'text-bas':11 'thread':1 'user':6 'x':3

Bluesky begins to wither as its development team prioritizes building its underlying protocol over growth, community management, and making improvements to the user experience.

'begin':2 'blueski':1 'build':10 'communiti':16 'develop':7 'experi':24 'growth':15 'improv':20 'make':19 'manag':17 'priorit':9 'protocol':13 'team':8 'under':12 'user':23 'wither':4

Google mostly catches up to OpenAI in LLM quality and begins to neutralize GPT's lead.

'begin':11 'catch':3 'googl':1 'gpt':14 'lead':16 'llm':8 'most':2 'neutral':13 'openai':6 'qualiti':9

The quality of search results degrades as Google proves unable to reliably detect AI-generated content.

'ai':15 'ai-gener':14 'content':17 'degrad':6 'detect':13 'generat':16 'googl':8 'prove':9 'qualiti':2 'reliabl':12 'result':5 'search':4 'unabl':10

Scaled-up AI-generated sludge outcompetes many digital media companies for advertising and affiliate-link dollars, sparking further waves of job losses and consolidation.

'advertis':14 'affili':17 'affiliate-link':16 'ai':5 'ai-gener':4 'compani':12 'consolid':27 'digit':10 'dollar':19 'generat':6 'job':24 'link':18 'loss':25 'mani':9 'media':11 'outcompet':8 'scale':2 'scaled-up':1 'sludg':7 'spark':20 'wave':22

The US presidential election is full of synthetic media, and it mostly doesn’t matter.

'doesn':13 'elect':4 'full':6 'matter':15 'media':9 'most':12 'presidenti':3 'synthet':8 'us':2

Fragmentation in social media will make it more difficult to understand which narratives are resonating most with voters.

'difficult':9 'fragment':1 'make':6 'media':4 'narrat':13 'reson':15 'social':3 'understand':11 'voter':18

TikTok skates unscathed through another presidential administration.

'administr':7 'anoth':5 'presidenti':6 'skate':2 'tiktok':1 'unscath':3

Apple's Vision Pro is successful enough to revive interest in mixed reality and the metaverse.

'appl':1 'enough':7 'interest':10 'metavers':16 'mix':12 'pro':4 'realiti':13 'reviv':9 'success':6 'vision':3

The number of people who say they are in romantic relationships with AI companions will increase sharply.

'ai':13 'companion':14 'increas':16 'number':2 'peopl':4 'relationship':11 'romant':10 'say':6 'sharpli':17

Meta kills off its incomprehensible celebrity-based AI characters.

'ai':9 'base':8 'celebr':7 'celebrity-bas':6 'charact':10 'incomprehens':5 'kill':2 'meta':1