—- AI Capabilities—

LLMs have a few different shortcomings :

Hallucinations
Context Windows
Mathematical and Logical Problems :

33k

Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (2023)50%

1.2k

Will Mira's main GPT-4 Sudoku market ever again drop below 50% and stay there for at least 24 hours?NO

1.5k

[Math test 1] What will GPT-4 Vision score on the Mathematics section of JEE Advanced paper? (out of 60) ($200M sub)

15%

<0 (i.e. negative score)

29%

0-10

16%

10-20

12%

20-30

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1.2k

[Math test 2] What will GPT-4 Vision score on the Mathematics section of JEE Advanced paper? (out of 60) ($200M sub)

27%

<0 (i.e. negative score)

24%

0-10

21%

10-20

12%

20-30

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1k

[Physics test 2] What will GPT-4 Vision score on the Physics section of JEE Advanced paper? (out of 60) ($150M sub)

34%

<0 (i.e. negative score)

17%

0-10

18%

10-20

8%

20-30

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1.2k

[Chemistry test 1] What will GPT-4 Vision score on the Chemistry section of JEE Advanced paper? (out of 60) ($150M sub)

9%

<0 (i.e. negative score)

17%

0-10

27%

10-20

11%

20-30

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1.2k

[Chemistry test 2] What will GPT-4 Vision score on the Chemistry section of JEE Advanced paper? (out of 60) ($150M sub)

7%

<0 (i.e. negative score)

14%

0-10

36%

10-20

13%

20-30

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1.2k

Will GPT-4 fine-tuning be available by EOY?NO

1.7k

Will a large GPT-4 equivalent competitor model be revealed by the end of 2023?NO

730

Is GPT-4 best? (2023)YES

170

Will hallucinations (made up facts) created by LLMs go below 1% on specific corpora before 2025?38% chance

685

Will LLM hallucinations be down to human-expert rate within months?NO

1k

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?15% chance

1.9k

Will we get hallucination rates down to human-expert levels by May 2024?NO

550

Will A.I., "Hallucinate Significantly Less," by the End of 2023?NO

590

Will there be a version of GPT4 with a context window of 1 million tokens this year?NO

410

Will any LLM have roughly GPT-3-level losses with a context window of at least 50,000 tokens before April of 2024?N/A

1k

Will Safari include a chatbot at end of 2024?NO

1k

Will any LLM be able to multiply together arbitrary decimal numbers by the end of 2027?68% chance

270

Will Firefox include a chatbot at end of 2023?NO

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