This resolves True for any person that wins up on a 

 podcast episode released before Jan 1st, 2025. If they were 

 on Complex Systems before the date this market got made (September 16th 2024) then they would resolve No unless they appear again. This market cares about the release dates for the episodes, not about the recording dates.

The initial names are drawn from people I think would be interesting or cool to have on the podcast. You should add more if you have ideas! Patio11 is aware of Manifold so he might see your suggestion. 

I plan to bet on this market, but resolution should be pretty objective!

Resolves to whoever is selected as the United States Democratic Party nominee for President at the 

An option resolves Yes if that person becomes the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and wins the presidential election.

An option resolves No if that person becomes the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and loses the presidential election.

An option resolves N/A if that person is not the 2024 Democratic Party nominee.

For a version of this question that resolves based on either the 2024 or the 2028 nominee, see here:

Resolves to the person chosen for VICE PRESIDENT by the DNC for the 2024 US Elections, if listed here when chosen. If the answer is unambiguously duplicated, resolves to the version added first. Otherwise OTHER.

This is currently set to close at the expected end of the Democratic National Convention in 2024. May adjust if needed.

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

(May resolve provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes; if Manifold allows provisional resolutions.)

This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the election.

If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the election, or NO otherwise.

Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.

If the AP/Fox do not declare a winner, such as if there is a tie in the electoral college, this question will resolve YES if any candidate of the Republican Party is designated as the next president by the United States Congress before the end of January 31st, 2025 (ET), or will resolve NO otherwise.

Presidential Debate

JD Vance

Trump Trials

US Congress

Swing States

Polling

TikTok Ban

MI-07	OPEN (Slotkin) (D) - Won by 5.42% - Full Toss-up

NC-01	Don Davis (D) - Won by 4.74% - Full Toss-up

WA-03	Marie Perez (D) - Won by 0.82% - Full Toss-up

AZ-01	David Schweikert (R) - Won by 0.88%

CA-13	John Duarte (R) - Won by 0.42% - Full Toss-up

CA-27	Mike Garcia (R) - Won by 6.48% - Full Toss-up

NY-04	Anthony D'Esposito (R) - Won by 3.59%

NY-17	Mike Lawler (R) - Won by 0.64% - Full Toss-up

OR-05	Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) - Won by 2.08% - Full Toss-up

. The current balance of power is 217 Republican Party members, 214 Democratic Party members, and 5 vacancies.

If a member of the Republican Party wins a house race, then that house race resolves YES in this market. If a member of the Democratic Party wins a race, then that race resolves NO. 

If a race is won by someone who is not a member of either party, they will be considered to be a member of the major party they are expected to caucus with. For example, Bernie Sanders would be considered a Democrat and Justin Amash would be considered a Republican.

Races are listed in the format "[district name] [incumbent name] [incumbent party] [margin of victory of incumbent in 2022 election] [Ratings from Cook/Inside/Sabato]"

As of market creation, only the most competitive seats have their margin of victory listed. Additional information and additional races will be added to this market as we get closer to the election.

For additional analysis, you can find projections for these races at 

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has trimmed former President Donald Trump’s lead in the Republican primary race in New Hampshire to single digits, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.

CNN Poll: Haley trims Trump’s lead to single digits in New Hampshire | CNN Politics

OpenAI

Deepseek

Israel Ceasefire

LA Fire

Oscars 2025

H5N1

Trump

Cabinet

Nintendo Switch 2

Trudeau Resigns

Hard Forkcasts 2025

Korea

Biden

House Speaker

Sora 

Bitcoin

2028 Election

AGI Timelines

Taylor Swift

Elon/Tesla

Sama Drama

AI Math

Twitter

ACX 2024 

One Piece

Music AI Race

Hard Forkasts 2024

AI 2025

Both of them mention 'AI' or 'Artificial intelligence' at least once

'ai':5 'artifici':7 'intellig':8 'least':10 'mention':4

OpenAI is mentioned by name by either candidate

'candid':8 'either':7 'mention':3 'name':5 'openai':1

Trump says 'the best' at least once, exact quote, can be in the middle of another sentence

'anoth':16 'best':4 'exact':8 'least':6 'middl':14 'quot':9 'say':2 'sentenc':17 'trump':1

Biden uses a two word nickname for trump (like Sleepy Joe etc)

'biden':1 'etc':12 'joe':11 'like':9 'nicknam':6 'sleepi':10 'trump':8 'two':4 'use':2 'word':5

'ask':2 'biden':1 'return':7 'tax':6 'trump':3

Trump refuses to yield the microphone when told to by the moderators

'microphon':6 'moder':12 'refus':2 'told':8 'trump':1 'yield':4

Either candidate mentions or alludes to any of Trump's trials.

'allud':5 'candid':2 'either':1 'mention':3 'trial':11 'trump':9

Question about legalizing weed / keeping weed legalized 

'keep':5 'legal':3,7 'question':1 'weed':4,6

Trump makes a claim that the election was stolen/rigged/fraudulent

'claim':4 'elect':7 'make':2 'stolen/rigged/fraudulent':9 'trump':1

Either candidate or the moderator says the word “porn”.

'candid':2 'either':1 'moder':5 'porn':9 'say':6 'word':8

A moderator mentions either candidate's age

'age':7 'candid':5 'either':4 'mention':3 'moder':2

The moderator has to appeal for calm (due to audience interuptions about Palestine or false election theories)

'appeal':5 'audienc':10 'calm':7 'due':8 'elect':16 'fals':15 'interupt':11 'moder':2 'palestin':13 'theori':17

Trump wins debate, as judged by chris (@strutheo)

'chris':7 'debat':3 'judg':5 'strutheo':8 'trump':1 'win':2

Trump wins debate, as indicated by the consensus average of opinion writers on CNN.com, of all articles published before noon the day after the debate

'articl':17 'averag':9 'cnn.com':14 'consensus':8 'day':22 'debat':3,25 'indic':5 'noon':20 'opinion':11 'publish':18 'trump':1 'win':2 'writer':12

Trump makes a major gaffe that is referred to as such on the front page of the New York Times

'front':14 'gaff':5 'major':4 'make':2 'new':18 'page':15 'refer':8 'time':20 'trump':1 'york':19

Biden makes a major gaffe that is referred to as such on the front page of the New York Times

'biden':1 'front':14 'gaff':5 'major':4 'make':2 'new':18 'page':15 'refer':8 'time':20 'york':19

There's a physical barrier between the candidates, or they're in separate rooms.

'barrier':5 'candid':8 'physic':4 're':11 'room':14 'separ':13

Eliezer Yudkowsky makes a post on X that references the debate within 24 hours after the debate ends

'24':13 'debat':11,17 'eliez':1 'end':18 'hour':14 'make':3 'post':5 'refer':9 'within':12 'x':7 'yudkowski':2

hunter biden is mentioned BY NAME not just by reference of 'his son' etc

'biden':2 'etc':14 'hunter':1 'mention':4 'name':6 'refer':10 'son':13

Trump announces selection for Vice President

'announc':2 'presid':6 'select':3 'trump':1 'vice':5

They will not debate each other before the Presidential election

'debat':2 'presidenti':1

After skipping GOP primary debates, Trump challenged Biden to step onto a stage with him before the November election.

Trump says he will debate Biden 'anytime'

Anyone refers to Trump as a "Convicted felon"

Anyone refers to the events of January 6th 2021 at the Capitol as an "insurrection" or "attempted insurrection"

Anyone says "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence"

Walz wins the debate (Subjective: see description)

Walz mentions any part of Trump's history of sexual abuse.

This will be more entertaining than the first Presidential Debate, trump v biden (Subjective: see description)

Walz mentions his time as a football “coach”

Walz calls Vance racist or implies he is (Subjective: see description)

Vance compares Kamala's nomination to a "coup" or says it was "unlawful" or was "unconstitutional" or she was "not-elected" or any other equivalent to implying a kamalacoup (Slightly subjective: see description).

Vance says "BLM" or "Black Lives Matter" at least twice (total combined)

Walz calls Vance an “elitist” (not just his ideas or policy)

Anyone says "Obama", including "ObamaCare"

Anyone says the name of a planet, intentionally or not

Walz mentions his "free school lunch(es)" or "free lunch(es)" program

Vance mentions Walz's "DWI" or "DUI" or "Driving/Drove Drunk" or "Driving/Drove While Intoxicated" or "Driving/Drove Under the Influence"

Vance will be positioned to the right of Walz on stage (audience POV)

Either candidate directly and intentionally quotes lyrics from a song

Tim Walz destroys a rare Magic: The Gathering card in front of Vance to assert dominance

Walz running a “gay-straight alliance” as a high school teacher is mentioned

JD Vance is asked about the "dolphin" tweet

Vance claims to be better at drunk driving than Walz because nobody has caught him yet

Either candidate wears a tie in a color other than red or blue

"Elon Musk" is mentioned ("Elon" or "Musk" count as YES)

JD Vance implies or states that the "22nd Amendment" should be repealed (remove "term limits" or trump should "stay in office" next term)

JD Vance is asked about "texting-" with, or "texts-" with, or that he "texted-" a known "-Holocaust denier" or "-Charles Johnson"

Vance is asked about Trump's age or Trump's health

Either candidate says "my wife" but in a way where they are clearly doing an impression of Borat

(Excluding this one, and any N/As) >50% of answers in this market resolve YES

Both candidates wear a blue suit of any shade

Walz mentions Vance's past comparison of "Trump" to "Hitler"

Vance claims that Walz "lied" about his "service" record, or says "stolen valor"

Anyone mispronounces a name, intentionally or not (Subjective: see description)

Walz notes that “Pence” did not “endorse Trump”

Walz mentions “Pence” by name more than once

Either candidate says "my daughter" or "my son(s)"

“Haiti” or “Haitians” mentioned by either candidate

Vance is fact checked MORE than Walz (called out by moderators for lie)

"Aliens" are mentioned by either candidate

Either candidate says "joy" and then starts humming Symphony No. 9

Anyone says "based", clearly in the adjectival "praiseworthy" sense of the word (e.g. "Trump is based", not "American based companies")

Either candidate is at least 5 minutes late

Anyone says "transgender" OR "trans" specifically meaning transgender

"Execution" of child after birth is mentioned 

Anybody mentions Hillary Clinton (ibnlt "Hillary", "Clinton", "the 2016 Democratic nominee", "Obama's Secretary of State)

Someone talks about Trump refusing to do another presidential debate

Trump posts on Truth Social or X during debate

Vance is the first to say the word “Ohio.”

Vance says "Kamala" or "Harris" before Walz does

Vance claims that the rumors about “migrants eating cats” are true

Anyone says "Al" (the name "Al" with an "L", not "AI" meaning artificial intelligence)

Anyone says "Donald" referring to someone other than either Trump

Either candidate announces a new policy they (or their president) would support (subjective: see description)

Anyone mentions Walz's advisorship of the Mankato HS “gay-straight alliance”

'jd':1 'vanc':2

'trial':2 'trump':1

Donald Trump has been held in contempt of court and fined $9,000 for repeatedly violating a gag order that barred him from making public statements about witnesses, jurors and some others connected to his New York hush money case.

Hush money trial judge raises threat of jail as he finds Trump violated gag order, fines him $9K

Jurors will receive instructions from the judge on the law and the factors they may consider as they strive to reach a verdict in the first criminal case against a former American president.

Jurors in Trump hush money trial end 1st day of deliberations after asking to rehear testimony

Judge Juan Merchan has found former President Donald Trump in contempt for violating the gag order in his hush money trial for the 10th time and said he’ll consider jail time going forward.

Judge finds Donald Trump in contempt for 10th time over gag order and threatens jail time | CNN Politics

A Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records he faced in his New York hush money criminal trial.

Donald Trump found guilty of all 34 charges in hush money trial | CNN Politics

A comprehensive guide on what to expect at Donald Trump's landmark criminal trial in Manhattan for his alleged falsification of business records and hush money arrangement in 2016 presidential election.

A Complete Guide to the Manhattan Trump Election Interference Prosecution

If the Dem Nom beats Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race

If the Dem Nom loses to Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race

If the Dem Nom beats Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race

If Dem Nom loses to Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race

     D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

       R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

'congress':2 'us':1

Tester has survived three close elections and a changed national political landscape to emerge as the lone Democrat still holding high office in Montana.

A Montana farmer with a flattop and ample lobbyist cash stands between the GOP and Senate control

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

Montana : U.S. Senate : 2024 Polls

Ohio : U.S. Senate : 2024 Polls

Brown and Moreno are attempting to run on their own brands of populism while casting the other as out of touch in one of the year’s top Senate battles. 

Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno rush to define each other as Ohio's Senate race shifts to the general election

The GOP majority is quite small, but a Democratic takeover pre-election still seems extremely unlikely.

Could Republican resignations flip the House to Democrats?

North Carolina (Presidency and Governorship)

New Hampshire (Presidency and Governorship)

'state':2 'swing':1

For methodology, please see our writeup here. This page will be updated once every day with the newest numbers. It was last updated on November 5th, 2024. Please note that this is a polling aggregator, not a forecast. You can find our current ratings here.

2024 Presidential Polling

2024 Arizona: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling