This market will resolve based on the outcome of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

 if it secures a majority of voting seats.

A candidate’s party affiliation is determined by how they are listed on the ballot or their clearly identifiable public affiliation at the time the 2026 midterm results are called. Candidates not formally affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered aligned with one based on their publicly declared intent to caucus.

 is unclear under the above rules, control will be determined by the party affiliation of the first 

 is unclear, it will be determined by the party affiliation of the first 

 have all conclusively called the outcomes of both chambers. If these sources do not reach consensus, the market will resolve based on the results 

This resolves True for any person that wins up on a 

 podcast episode released before Jan 1st, 2025. If they were 

 on Complex Systems before the date this market got made (September 16th 2024) then they would resolve No unless they appear again. This market cares about the release dates for the episodes, not about the recording dates.

The initial names are drawn from people I think would be interesting or cool to have on the podcast. You should add more if you have ideas! Patio11 is aware of Manifold so he might see your suggestion. 

I plan to bet on this market, but resolution should be pretty objective!

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Republican Party holds at least 218 seats, thereby securing a majority in the House. Conversely, it will resolve to "No" if the Republicans hold fewer than 218 seats. The official election results, as reported by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, will serve as the primary source for resolution. (

The 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026, will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested. As of June 2025, the Republican Party holds a narrow majority with 220 seats, while the Democratic Party holds 213 seats. (

⚠️⚠️☣️ AI SLOP ZONE⚠️⚠️☣️ 

No final decision has been made yet; the creator is seeking trader input.

Each option provisionally resolves once both the New York Times and Decision Desk HQ (or, if those become defunct, other reliable sources) call the race and do not retract the call for 24 hours. Final resolution will be according to certified results.

Whether a candidate is "a Democrat" is determined by the party affiliation displayed on the ballot (being a Dem as one party on a fusion ticket counts.)

Can close when the winner is called by AP, Economist, and other major media outlets.

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat. The outcome will be determined based on official results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth. If the primary is canceled or no candidate is declared the winner, the market will resolve as N/A.

Incumbent Senator Ed Markey, who has served since 2013, has announced his intention to seek re-election in 2026. At that time, he will be 80 years old. (

Alex Rikleen, a history teacher, has declared his candidacy for the Democratic primary. (

Representative Jake Auchincloss, serving Massachusetts's 4th congressional district since 2021, has not ruled out a primary challenge against Markey. (

Other potential candidates include Katherine Clark, Ayanna Pressley, Seth Moulton, Joseph Kennedy III, Marty Walsh, and Michelle Wu, though none have officially declared their intentions as of now.

Senator Markey's age has been a topic of discussion, with some questioning whether he should seek another term. (

) Additionally, the potential entry of younger candidates like Auchincloss could influence the dynamics of the primary race. (

Resolves to the winner. Resolves on media reporting and official results.

Resolves to the winner of the 2026 us senate election in Maine. Resolves according to official results and major media reporting.

Incumbent Democratic Senator from Minnesota Tina Smith, whose seat is up for re-election in 2026, has surprisingly decided not to seek reelection. Who will replace her as Minnesota Senator? Feel free to add answers, especially since the candidate field has yet to be determined at time of market creation. Question will be resolved upon the results of the general election becoming known. I may bet in this market.

Resolves according to the winner of the 2026 US senate election in Montana. If a Republican or bodnar doesn’t win, resolves n/a.

Resolves when both AP and DDHQ have called the race, and the calls are not retracted for at least 24 hours. If the race is never called by one of these organizations, resolves when election results are certified.

The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026. The winner will be determined by the candidate who receives the most votes in the general election. Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026. The market resolves to whichever candidate wins the general election. Results can be verified at 

Texas Secretary of State Elections Division

 or major news outlets covering the election results.

If Marco Rubio leaves the Senate, there will be a special election in 2026 to decide who will fill the position for the remaining 2 years of that term. 

If a GOP candidate wins this election, this market resolves yes.

If a non-GOP candidate wins, the election isn't held, or some other outcome occurs, this market resolves NO. 

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the 2026 election to the U.S. Senate from Georgia.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed affiliation, of that party.

PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

Although Republicans are largely expected to win the seat, a recent poll from Public Policy Polling has shown Republicans between 1 and 14 points ahead, a potentially competitive range.

As identified on the ballot, regardless of how they eventually caucus. For the caucus question, see 

Note that the Democratic party is not expected to field a candidate; they've endorsed Osborn.

In the event that Osborn declares for a major party and appears on the ballot as a D or R candidate, this market will resolve to the D or R option.

Texas, but neither California nor New York

Only redistricting that take effect before the midterms counts.

This question will resolve YES if, in the 2026 midterm election, the congressional district containing Charlottesville is a blue district.

 of EVEN or D+x (for some positive x) on the day of the Democratic primary election. If there is no Cook PVI on that day, I will wait to resolve until a Cook PVI is known.

 if there are multiple congressional districts that contain Charlottesville, this question will be resolved based on the congressional district that has the greatest overlap with the current 5th congressional district, in terms of population.

 currently, the congressional district containing Charlottesville (the 5th district) is red, with a Cook PVI of R+6 (meaning that, in a neutral environment, Republicans are expected to get 56% of the vote). However, Virginia is likely to redistrict in a way that favors Democrats, and the district containing Charlottesville may become blue.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 3, 2026, the Texas Legislature enacts new congressional district maps AND gains seats in Congress.

The market will resolve “No” if the Texas Legislature enacts new congressional maps, but loses seats or maintains the same number.

The market will resolve to "NA" if no such redistricting occurs by that date. 

In July 2025, President Donald Trump urged Texas Republicans to redraw the state's congressional maps to create five additional GOP-favored districts, aiming to bolster the party's majority in the U.S. House ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Governor Greg Abbott responded by adding redistricting to a special legislative session agenda. Democrats are vulnerable because unlike Texas, Democratic strongholds typically have independent redistricting commissions to ensure nonpartisan districts. (

Texas Republicans currently hold 25 of the state's 38 congressional seats. The proposed redistricting targets districts like that of Democrat Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the Rio Grande Valley. The current districts are already being challenged under the Voting Rights act for diluting minority rule. Mid-decade redistricting is unprecedented, as is such extreme and blatant partisanship in creating voting districts. Ordinarily districts are redrawn once every ten years to reflect changes in the state population as recorded in the Census. 

Some are speculating that further aggressive gerrymandering in Texas amounts to “dummymandering” that could backfire by galvanizing people into turning out and toppling GOP incumbents in redrawn districts that didn’t elect them. 

A federal district court recently ruled that Texas could not use its 2025 map for the 2026 midterms:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/18/politics/texas-redistricting-trump-court-ruling

This question resolves YES if and only if the 2025 map, as enacted by the legislature in August, is actually used for the 2026 midterms (e.g. if the district court's decision is overturned on appeal).

This market resolves yes if Virginia uses a different congressional map for the 2026 elections then the 2024 elections.

There is a current attempt in Virginia to do mid-decade redistricting, similar to several other states. This is particularly complicated in Virginia, because they currently have a bipartisan redistricting commission and passing a constitutional amendment is more difficult than in California. The steps needed (to my understanding:

This market will resolve Yes if Florida uses a different congressional map for the 2026 elections then the 2024 elections.

Governor Ron DeSantis has announced a new map, and there is a special session of the (Republican controlled) legislature to try to pass it. From a legal perspective redistricting in Florida is complicated by the fact that the Florida constitution prohibits partisan gerrymandering (in contrast to other states where the easiest way to avoid legal challenges to to be explicit that you are gerrymandering based on partisanship).

Resolves YES if after the 2026 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise.

If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.

Susan Collins is a Republican U.S. Senator from Maine who has served since 1997. She has historically outperformed typical Republican candidates in Maine, positioning herself as a moderate in a state that leans Democratic overall.

A January 2025 political science paper titled "The Electoral Consequences of Ideological Persuasion: Evidence from a Within-Precinct Analysis of U.S. Elections" by Bonica, Rhee, and Studen examines how candidate ideology affects vote share. The paper finds that a standard deviation change in ideological midpoint between candidates results in an average vote share penalty of 0.6 percentage points, with the authors concluding that "gains associated with ideological moderation are relatively modest and likely secondary to turnout effects."

Matthew Yglesias has challenged this paper's conclusions, suggesting that moderates like Susan Collins consistently outperform their state's partisan baseline, contrary to the paper's findings that ideological moderation offers only modest electoral advantages.

This market will resolve to YES if Susan Collins outperforms the Republican partisan baseline in Maine by any margin in the 2026 Senate election, supporting Yglesias's position that moderate candidates like Collins do gain significant electoral advantages from their ideological positioning.

The market will resolve to NO if Susan Collins underperforms relative to the Republican partisan baseline in Maine in the 2026 Senate election.

The market will resolve to N/A if Susan Collins does not run for re-election in 2026.

The partisan baseline will be calculated by averaging Republican performance across other major statewide races in Maine during the 2024 and 2026 election cycles (including presidential, gubernatorial, and other federal races as applicable)

Clarification: Methodology for "Republican Baseline"

To ensure the "Republican Partisan Baseline" is robust and not reliant on a single data point (the Governor's race), the baseline for 2026 will be calculated by averaging the Republican vote share across three distinct statewide aggregates.

If Susan Collins' vote share in the 2026 U.S. Senate election exceeds this calculated percentage, the market resolves 

Only count voters who express a preference in the comparison being measured.

Down-ballot: 40 / (50 + 40) = 44.4% Republican

While 10% of the vote would not win the seat, by taking votes from other candidates, 10% may be enough to change the outcome of an election and influence the final composition of the House of Representatives and even which party has a house majority.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any official candidate nominated by the America Party receives at least 10% of the total votes in any U.S. Congressional seat (House or Senate) during the 2026 elections. Official election results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) or respective state election authorities will serve as the primary sources for verification.

For this item to resolve yes, the candidate must be a nominee or member of the America Party, and CANNOT be an official nominee of the Democrat or Republican Party.

Refers to the federal U.S. Congress only, not state legislatures.

Elon Musk announced the formation of the America Party in July 2025, aiming to challenge the traditional two-party system and influence the 2026 midterm elections. The party's platform emphasizes fiscal responsibility and reducing government spending. Musk has indicated a strategy focused on targeting a select number of House and Senate races to maximize impact. (

Historically, third-party candidates have faced significant challenges in U.S. elections. For instance, in the 2016 Arkansas House elections, Libertarian candidates received substantial vote shares, with some districts seeing over 20% of votes going to third-party candidates, primarily due to the absence of Democratic contenders. (

Achieving 10% of the vote in a Congressional district is a notable benchmark for third-party candidates. While the America Party's association with Elon Musk provides substantial resources and media attention, the entrenched two-party system and varying state ballot access laws present significant hurdles. Additionally, the party's ability to attract disillusioned voters from both major parties will be crucial in determining its success in the 2026 elections.

Enrique Tarrio, former Proud Boys leader, was recently pardoned by Trump for his involvement in the January 6th attack on Congress. In 

, he stated he intends to run for office (though he hasn't stated what) in 2026 or 2028. 

Will he make it to any general ballot for any elected position in 2026?

Resolves YES if Enrique Tarrio is listed on a general ballot anywhere in the United States in 2026. If and when Tarrio announces he's running for any specific position, this market will shift to reflect that. This counts for the 2026 election only - if he runs in 2025, it does not count.

Resolves NO if Tarrio fails to win in a primary election and thusly does not appear on the ballot. If Tarrio announces he has no intention of running in 2026, drops out of a race long before the primary, or dies this market will resolve NO. If he drops out close enough to the primary that he will still be on the primary ballot, it will not. 

Washington Post reports that Trump is expected to bring the USPS under executive control. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/02/20/trump-usps-takeover-dejoy/

Assuming he issues the expected order, and further assuming the order is not overturned before the 2026 midterms, will Trump issue another executive order preventing the delivery or counting of vote-by-mail ballots for the federal elections for the 120th Congress?

This market will also resolve Yes if Congress passes legislation that prevents either the delivery or the counting of vote-by-mail ballots in the same elections.

In the case that such an executive order is issued or such a law is passed, and in practice the order or law only applies to some portion of eligible voters, this market will also resolve Yes.

This market will resolve when the 120th Congress sits for their first session.

I will add new options if the odds credibly swing either much higher or much lower than the currently expected median. Feel free to ask clarifying questions. By default, this market will resolve on January 4th, 2027. If there is an edge case in which it is unclear how many Dems are in the new senate, I will delay resolution. Independents will count towards the party they caucus with. Independents who do not caucus with the Dems will not count for them, even if they usually vote with them.

This market will resolve to the party of the candidate sworn in as the 44th Governor of Iowa. If the new governor is Republican/GOP (or if Kim Reynolds wins), the market will resolve "Republican". If the new governor is a Democrat, the market will resolve "Democrat". If a candidate is sworn in but does not have clear affiliations with the aforementioned parties, the market will resolve "Third Party/Other". Only if no election is held or if a governor is not sworn in will the market resolve N/A.

Democrats control House, Republicans control Senate

Republicans control House, Democrats control Senate

While Wikipedia will be the primary source, the creator will use their judgment if facts substantially diverge from Wikipedia's assessment of "control".

Wikipedia's verdict on control will stand unless the creator strongly disagrees with it.