Trump approval
VoteHub average
37.4%
Past 7 days
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Elections
Live prediction market odds on US elections
2026 Midterms
Senate controlchart →
ⓘ
Republicans need 51 seats, or 50 with VP Vance breaking ties, so a 50–50 Senate counts as Republican. The Democratic side is every other outcome, including independents who don’t caucus with Republicans.
House controlchart →
ⓘ
Republicans need 218 seats to keep the House. The Democratic side is any result with fewer than 218 Republicans.
52 DemocraticDD needs 51 · R needs 50 (VP breaks ties)RepublicanR 48
35 of 35 seats with party odds · 65 seats not on the ballot
Loading election map…
Arrow keys move between races. Enter opens details.Republican50 / 50Democratic
Other leadsNo party odds yetNot on ballot · current party
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Polling averages
VoteHub's live polling averages. Bet on whether they go higher or lower.
Generic ballot (D share)
VoteHub average
49.4%
Past 7 days
Vance favorability
VoteHub average
39.3%
Past 7 days
Manifold Midterm Contest
Only on Manifold: the community's contest questions about the campaign trail, from candidate visits to winning margins.
Leading: Age 30-44 voters87%22 traders
55%chance19 traders
15%chance16 traders
23%chance14 traders
17%chance13 traders
Leading: Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan)97%13 traders
34%chance13 traders
48%chance11 traders
What control of Congress would change
The same questions, asked under each outcome of the Senate race. Click a chance to bet on it.
Senate
House
Midterms
Chance of…
If Democrats win the Senate · 65%
If Republicans keep the Senate · 35%
Gap
A justice leaves the Supreme Court (by Jan 2029)
41-pt gap
Senate confirms a new Supreme Court justice
45-pt gap
40+ federal judges confirmed in 2027–28
60-pt gap
A Cabinet nomination is rejected or withdrawn
50-pt gap
Government shutdown in 2027
20-pt gap
Legislative filibuster ended (by Jan 2029)
4-pt gap
Each market resolves N/A if its condition doesn't happen, so bets only count in that world.
Unprecedented politics
Things that have never happened in American politics, with the market's live odds that they do.
62%chance273 traders
28%chance11 traders
18%chance148 traders
67%chance111 traders
14%chance460 traders
41%chance157 traders
55%chance92 traders
94%chance2718 traders
Trending
The hottest midterm markets right now
What the 2028 winner would change
The same questions, asked under a Democratic and a Republican president. Click a chance to bet on it.
Chance of…
If the Democrat wins · 64%
If the Republican wins · 34%
Gap
S&P 500 up by end of 2029 (vs Election Day)
2-pt gap
GDP shrinks in a quarter, 2029–30
No gap
Supreme Court grows beyond nine (by 2033)
20-pt gap
Marijuana federally descheduled (by 2033)
23-pt gap
Legislative filibuster ended (by 2031)
18-pt gap
Federal abortion-rights law (by 2033)
19-pt gap
Bitcoin above $250k at end of 2030
4-pt gap
Each market resolves N/A if its condition doesn't happen, so bets only count in that world.
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