JUMBLES

Joint Underwriting and Mutual Bailout for Loans and Economic Stability (JUMBLES) is a defunct credit union of @Tumbles creditors and other parties interested in making the Tumbles Financial Complex (TFC) solvent.

Accounting: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1EOD7tpWZvqpHdQq9MKmfm8oy-jz-IdQOxmFNvomW914/edit

History

JUMBLES first devised the Tumbles Asset Relief Program (TARP) on 4 May 2025, roughly 48 hours before @Tumbles was all but sure that the TFC would collapse. This strategy involved 4 key steps:

  1. Verify with Manifold admins that no step in this process constituted any fraud.

  2. Negotiate with all creditors with expiry dates in May to extend the deadline on their loan until June, or to sell it at a discounted price.

  3. Transfer all of Tumbles 622K NO shares in the main TFC market to JUMBLES investors.

  4. Put out a public offer to purchase all TFC debt (approx. 1.8M) simultaneously for 30% of the entitlement. If this can be agreed to, JUMBLES can purchase and then fully forgive all TFC debt. When this happens, the main TFC market resolves NO, and the NO shares held by JUMBLES will cover the costs incurred to execute the bailout.

This strategy required an initial investment of liquid mana to execute steps 2 and 3. This investment is a fully sunk cost. A return on this investment is only possible conditional on the public offer being agreed to.

On 8 June 2025, due to a lack of interest in TARP, JUMBLES changed to the Pooling Illiquid Value to Offset Tumbles (PIVOT) strategy with hopes of maintaining TFC solvency. From this date, anyone could become a JUMBLES investor by making repayments on any TFC debt. In doing so, the sender would get a stake in all of JUMBLES illiquid assets.

Previously, there was no good way to simultaneously invest in and contribute to the TFC. One could buy debt or NO shares to invest, but this would not contribute to its solvency. One could repay debt, but this would provide no investment. PIVOT allowed people to do both at once.

On June 9, Tumbles defaulted, and JUMBLES became defunct. Although we could not secure solvency, we are still proud of what we achieved: Ṁ179,329 in total relief to Tumbles creditors.

Investors

Total investments: Ṁ91,296

If at any point a JUMBLES illiquid asset vests, the proceeds will be fully distributed amongst all investors proportional to their investment.

Expenses

  • 5 May 2025 - Ṁ500 to @TheWabiSabi

  • 6 May 2025 - Ṁ51,500 to @TheWabiSabi, acquiring Ṁ169,000 of TFC debt

  • 6 May 2025 - Ṁ24,296 to acquire 607,413 NO shares in the main TFC market

  • 1 June 2025 - Ṁ13,000 to @HillaryClinton, sent by @Simon74fe to repay TFC debt

  • 8 June 2025 - Ṁ2,000 TFC debt forgiven by @jcb

Total expenses: Ṁ91,296

Assets

  • 672,118 NO shares on the main TFC market:

    • 25,000 held by @Robincvgr (private donation)

    • 30,000 held by @cthor (private donation)

    • 9,705 held by @crowlsyong (private donation)

    • 607,413 held by @cthor (purchased using JUMBLES investments)

  • Ṁ169,000 of TFC debt, held by @cthor (purchased using JUMBLES investments)

Loan Transfer Tracker

Since the public announcement of TARP:

The primary goal of JUMBLES is providing relief to original Tumbles lenders. Even if TARP is never executed, we are happy to have enabled the seemingly doomed TFC debt to become a prized commodity once more. Before the public announcement of TARP, markets priced it at a mere 4%, and the collapse was priced up to 96%.

As such, the following is a key measure of JUMBLES success:

Total relief to original Tumbles lenders since JUMBLES assembled: Ṁ179,329

100
Do you consent to the JUMBLES bailout?NO
2k
Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?YES
100
Tumbles debt value? (%)52%
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