JUMBLES

Joint Underwriting and Mutual Bailout for Loans and Economic Stability (JUMBLES) is a credit union of @Tumbles creditors and other parties interested in making the Tumbles Financial Complex (TFC) solvent.

JUMBLES first devised the Tumbles Asset Relief Program (TARP) on May 4 2025, roughly 48 hours before @Tumbles was all but sure that the TFC would collapse. This strategy involved 4 key steps:

1. Verify with Manifold admins that no step in this process constituted any fraud.

2. Negotiate with all creditors with expiry dates in May to extend the deadline on their loan until June, or to sell it at a discounted price.

3. Transfer all of Tumbles 622K NO shares in the main TFC market to JUMBLES investors.

4. Put out a public offer to purchase all TFC debt (approx. 1.8M) simultaneously for 30% of the entitlement. If this can be agreed to, JUMBLES can purchase and then fully forgive all TFC debt. When this happens, the main TFC market resolves NO, and the NO shares held by JUMBLES will cover the costs incurred to execute the bailout.

This strategy required an initial investment of liquid mana to execute steps 2 and 3. This investment is a fully sunk cost. A return on this investment is only possible conditional on the public offer being agreed to.

Investors

• @AmmonLam - Ṁ31,296

• @Robincvgr - Ṁ15,000

• @cthor - Ṁ10,000

• @crowlsyong - Ṁ10,000

• @Simon74fe - Ṁ10,000

• @Tumbles - Spiritual guidance

Total investments: Ṁ76,296

In the case where the bailout plan is agreed to, investors have right of first refusal to provide liquidity to execute the bailout proportional to the size of their investment. In the unlikely case that investors don't have enough liquidity to execute the bailout, the fund will open the floor for anyone to supply liquidity to the bailout, first-come-first-serve.

After the bailout is successful and all illiquid assets have vested, liquidity providers will be reimbursed proportional to how much liquidity they provided.

Expenses

• 5 May 2025 - Ṁ500 to @TheWabiSabi

• 6 May 2025 - Ṁ51,500 to @TheWabiSabi, acquiring Ṁ169,000 of TFC debt

• 6 May 2025 - Ṁ24,296 to acquire 607,413 NO shares in the main TFC market

Total expenses: Ṁ76,296

Holdings

• 672,118 NO shares on the main TFC market:

  • 25,000 held by @Robincvgr

  • 30,000 held by @cthor

  • 9,705 held by @crowlsyong

  • 607,413 held by @cthor

• Ṁ169,000 of TFC debt, held by @cthor

Loan Transfer Tracker

Since the public announcement of TARP:

• 6 May 2025, @copiumarc sent @nikki Ṁ1,110 for Ṁ2,000 debt

• 6 May 2025, @HillaryClinton sent @AleaNiled Ṁ1,069 for Ṁ2,000 debt

• 7 May 2025, @TheWabiSabi sent @zsig Ṁ8,000 for Ṁ10,000 debt

• 7 May 2025, @TheWabiSabi sent @Odoacre Ṁ8,000 for Ṁ16,000 debt

• 7 May 2025, @InfamousMan sent @ahalekelly Ṁ7,400 for Ṁ20,000 debt

• 7 May 2025, @TheWabiSabi sent @wasabipesto Ṁ8,000 for Ṁ20,000 debt

• 7 May 2025, @StopPunting sent @10thOfficial Ṁ6,000 for Ṁ15,000 debt

• 7 May 2025, @StopPunting negotiated with @Tumbles to consolidate Ṁ15,000 of debt to Ṁ13,000, with the due date moved forward to 13 May 2025

• 7 May 2025, @StopPunting sent @InfamousMan Ṁ7,500 for Ṁ20,000 debt

• 7 May 2025, @HillaryClinton sent @Nightsquared Ṁ4,300 for Ṁ10,000 debt

• 8 May 2025, @SemioticRivalry sent @UniversalFC Ṁ45,000 for Ṁ70,000 debt

• 9 May 2025, @HillaryClinton sent @copiumarc Ṁ14,750 for Ṁ15,000 debt

The primary goal of JUMBLES is providing relief to original Tumbles lenders. Even if TARP is never executed, we are happy to have enabled the seemingly doomed TFC debt to become a prized commodity once more. Before the public announcement of TARP, markets priced it at a mere 4%, and the collapse was priced up to 96%.

As such, the following is a key measure of JUMBLES success:

Total relief to original Tumbles lenders since JUMBLES assembled: Ṁ155,129