JUMBLES

Joint Underwriting and Mutual Bailout for Loans and Economic Stability (JUMBLES) is a credit union of @Tumbles creditors and other parties interested in making the Tumbles Financial Complex (TFC) solvent.

JUMBLES first devised the Tumbles Asset Relief Program (TARP) on May 4 2025, roughly 48 hours before @Tumbles was all but sure that the TFC would collapse. This strategy involved 4 key steps:

  1. Verify with Manifold admins that no step in this process constituted any fraud.

  2. Negotiate with all creditors with expiry dates in May to extend the deadline on their loan until June, or to sell it at a discounted price.

  3. Transfer all of Tumbles 622K NO shares in the main TFC market to JUMBLES investors.

  4. Put out a public offer to purchase all TFC debt (approx. 1.8M) simultaneously for 30% of the entitlement. If this can be agreed to, JUMBLES can purchase and then fully forgive all TFC debt. When this happens, the main TFC market resolves NO, and the NO shares held by JUMBLES will cover the costs incurred to execute the bailout.

This strategy required an initial investment of liquid mana to execute steps 2 and 3. This investment is a fully sunk cost. A return on this investment is only possible conditional on the public offer being agreed to.

Investors

Total investments: Ṁ76,296

In the case where the bailout plan is agreed to, investors have right of first refusal to provide liquidity to execute the bailout proportional to the size of their investment. In the unlikely case that investors don't have enough liquidity to execute the bailout, the fund will open the floor for anyone to supply liquidity to the bailout, first-come-first-serve.

After the bailout is successful and all illiquid assets have vested, liquidity providers will be reimbursed proportional to how much liquidity they provided.

Expenses

  • 5 May 2025 - Ṁ500 to @TheWabiSabi

  • 6 May 2025 - Ṁ51,500 to @TheWabiSabi, acquiring Ṁ169,000 of TFC debt

  • 6 May 2025 - Ṁ24,296 to acquire 607,413 NO shares in the main TFC market

Total expenses: Ṁ76,296

Holdings

  • 672,118 NO shares on the main TFC market:

    • 25,000 held by @Robincvgr (private donation)

    • 30,000 held by @cthor (private donation)

    • 9,705 held by @crowlsyong (private donation)

    • 607,413 held by @cthor (purchased using JUMBLES investments)

  • Ṁ169,000 of TFC debt, held by @cthor (purchased using JUMBLES investments)

Loan Transfer Tracker

Since the public announcement of TARP:

The primary goal of JUMBLES is providing relief to original Tumbles lenders. Even if TARP is never executed, we are happy to have enabled the seemingly doomed TFC debt to become a prized commodity once more. Before the public announcement of TARP, markets priced it at a mere 4%, and the collapse was priced up to 96%.

As such, the following is a key measure of JUMBLES success:

Total relief to original Tumbles lenders since JUMBLES assembled: Ṁ164,329

100
Do you consent to the JUMBLES bailout?16% chance
2k
Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?85% chance
100
Tumbles debt value? (%)69% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy