Premise:

• @Tumbles owes a lot of mana.

• There has been talk of renegotiating this debt with his creditors, and/or more complicated financial arrangements.

• How much is Tumbles' debt worth? (i.e. cents on the dollar, except, mana)

Resolution:

This is not straightforward to measure (and broadly this is an unserious market, so bet at your own risk).

• This will be evaluated as of June 1st.

• I will look for all transactions involving Tumbles' loans between market creation & June 1st.

• This market resolves to the total (weighted) average value of the loans involved in those transactions

• Loans repaid in full are worth 100%. Any loans that default are worth 0%.

• Loan extensions don't count.

• Generally, any transaction/negotiation where mana is exchanged between parties & it implies a value of the underlying loans will probably count.

• I expect this may not be straightforward to calculate and thus the main rule here will be my good faith attempt to estimate the underlying value of the loans, as implied by what people are paying for them.

Example: if Tumbles defaults on a 100M loan, repays a 200M loan, and renegotiates a future 200M loan so that he only owes 100M, I'll count that as 3 transactions. This market would resolve to (0 + 200 + 100) / (100 + 200 + 200) = 60%.

Other examples:

• Forgiven loans are a transaction that count as 0%.

• It might depend on the exact details, but a "renegotiation" where a creditor agrees to extend the due date and accept only 50% of the previous value will likely be excluded—that doesn't meaningfully imply the value of the loan, it's closer to an extension (they might accept that promise over default even if they think the loan is worth 1%).

• Generally, any transaction where mana is exchanged will be prioritized (plus loan forgiveness + loan default, all of which concretely imply a loan value).

TRANSACTIONS I'M AWARE OF CURRENTLY (this is not a binding/comprehensive list):

• Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The creator has indicated that tracking the original amounts owed for Tumbles' debts is proving difficult.

  • Due to this difficulty, there is a reasonable chance the market may resolve N/A if the creator cannot find a sufficiently good log of the original debts to perform the calculation outlined in the description.

• Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The creator has updated the process for gathering transaction data:

  • They are unlikely to manually track down all Tumbles' debt transactions themselves due to increasing complexity.

  • Instead, they will rely on users to submit transactions they are aware of.

  • The creator will compile these submitted transactions and calculate the weighted average value as per the original description's methodology at the end of the month (for evaluation as of June 1st).

  • The creator noted that the market could resolve N/A if this method of relying on user submissions does not yield a sufficient basis for calculation. This potential for N/A resolution is related to the challenge of compiling comprehensive transaction data and is in addition to any N/A risks previously mentioned (e.g., difficulty in tracking original debt amounts).

• Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the calculated total (weighted) average value of Tumbles' loans (as per the methodology in the original description) exceeds 100%, the market will resolve to 100%.

• Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided a more specific plan for data collection and processing ahead of resolution:

  • Data sources for transactions will primarily be:

  • The "loan transfer tracker" in "Jumbles".

  • Non-duplicate transfers that have been posted in this market's comment thread.

  • Loan repayments found in "the main tumbles market".

  • Regarding loan repayments from "the main tumbles market":

  • The creator notes it's possible these repayments might be double counted if they also appear in records from the other specified sources.

  • The creator states this potential for double counting "was always part of the deal."

  • Users are advised that if they are aware of any loans they believe should count, and these are not in the "Jumbles" tracker, they should ensure these are posted in this market's comment thread.

• Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced they are resolving the market to 52%. See the linked comment for their final reasoning and data compilation.