When will Starship first dock to a non-Starship spacecraft?
Basic
14
1.5k
2027
1.3%
Q2 2024 or earlier
2%
Q3 2024 or earlier
3%
Q4 2024 or earlier
5%
Q1 2025 or earlier
9%
Q2 2025 or earlier
12%
Q3 2025 or earlier
16%
Q4 2025 or earlier
26%
Q1 2026 or earlier
36%
Q2 2026 or earlier
42%
Q3 2026 or earlier
56%
Q4 2026 or earlier

Artemis program has plans for using Orion spacecraft to ferry the astronauts to the Lunar orbit, and then use Starship HLS to make the landing. This will require an ability for Starship to dock to other spacecrafts. As of March 2024, Artemis 3 flight is planned for September 2026. Starship docking should be tested before that.

There are also speculations of other possible missions that would involve docking Starship to other spacecrafts, like Crew Dragon.

This question will be resolved positively when we first see Starship docked to a non-Starship spacecraft, while in space. Docking should involve the docking adaptor, connecting to another spacecraft by e.g. holding it with a robotic arm doesn't count. However it will still count if two spacecrafts are docked, but the hatch between their interiors is not open.

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How does this market resolve if it's later than 2026?

@Mqrius Each answer will resolve to NO. I will probably also add extra answers for later dates.

@OlegEterevsky Yeah that makes sense actually :)

Fwiw I don't expect Artemis 3 to happen until 2028 (see also every moon landing market), but we might see a docking before that, either autonomous or maybe the second Polaris mission or something like that.

@Mqrius I agree. I will be mildly surprised if the first docking will actually happen during Artemis 3. They are bound to have some tests before that.

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