When will Starship complete a full crewed mission from earth?
5
1kṀ3266
2050
February 9, 2034
4%
2025-2027
32%
2028-2030
37%
2031-2035
14%
2036-2040
12%
2041-2050

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the date on which SpaceX's Starship completes its first full crewed mission from Earth. A full crewed mission is defined as:

  • Launch: Starship must launch from Earth with a human crew aboard.

  • Orbit: The mission must complete at least one full orbit.

  • Reentry and Landing: The spacecraft must successfully reenter Earth's atmosphere and land safely.

Missions that do not meet all these criteria will not be considered for resolution.

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