Starship milestone dates megamarket

Question

Reach orbit means full circumnavigation around Earth.

Recover starship means mainly intact and no large deformation. Things that might possibly be repairable like missing tiles and/or hole in flap and/or flap torn off is acceptable.

Refuel a booster must be at least 50% of amount of propellants intended to be transferred. Also must be more than 1000 Kg of mass in case they do a very small scale test.

Catch booster on different tower means different from Pad A at Boca Chica used for the first catch. Pad B at Boca Chica is perhaps most advanced and most likely but it could be a different location. Note it does not have to be a different tower from which it launched.

Mass simulators to suborbital do not count as satellites.

Satellites must be deployed to orbit and be functional items but functional as a test item is OK.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2027/09 i.e. Sep 2027 is most likely. See the market for live updates (60 traders, as of Mar 19, 2026).