Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit
Otherwise answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached
*A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship that was paid for by an entity other than SpaceX - Hence Starlink missions and other internal payloads do not count, and nor do payloads that remain within Starship (or Starship itself in cases like the Artemis HLS missions) even if Starship itself completes an orbit.
Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch
UTC is used
Related markets:
/Nat/when-will-starship-first-deploy-a-s
1,000
3.00Related Metaculus question:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9611/date-of-a-customer-payload-on-starship/