When will Starship first deploy a commercial satellite to orbit?
30
3.9k
2027
4%
By end of September 2024
10%
By end of December 2024
35%
By end of June 2025
80%
By end of December 2025
88%
By end of December 2026

Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit

Otherwise answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached

*A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship that was paid for by an entity other than SpaceX - Hence Starlink missions and other internal payloads do not count, and nor do payloads that remain within Starship (or Starship itself in cases like the Artemis HLS missions) even if Starship itself completes an orbit.

Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch

UTC is used

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