When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit?
40
1.2kṀ10k2027
1%
By end of September 2025
4%
By end of December 2025
30%
By end of December 2026
45%
By end of June 2026
Resolved
NOBy end of December 2024
Resolved
NOBy end of June 2025
Resolved
NOBy end of September 2024
Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit
Otherwise answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached
*A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship that was paid for by an entity other than SpaceX - hence Starlink missions and other internal payloads do not count, and nor do payloads that remain within Starship (or Starship itself in cases like the Artemis HLS missions)
Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch
UTC is used
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