In June 2024 SpaceX demonstrated successful descent for both first and second stages of the Starship rocket. The potential next stage would be to try to land one or both stages.
This market will resolve positively as soon as SpaceX manages to land the second stage of Starship rocket after an orbital or suborbital flight. The spacecraft has to be landed on land and in one piece. It should presumably be captured by the launch tower, but other ways of landing on land or on a barge would also qualify. The rocket can sustain some damage, but the payload has to stay intact. The rocket also should stay in one piece for at least an hour after the landing.
I do not bet on my own questions.
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/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land
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3.00Sorry for the duplicate but thought people might like different milestones in one place for comparison.
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket