When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?
Basic
15
2.3k
2025
5%
Before 2024-08-01
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1mo
5%
Before 2024-09-01
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1mo
22%
Before 2024-10-01
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1mo
24%
Before 2024-11-01
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1mo
49%
Before 2024-12-01
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1mo
54%
Before 2025-01-01
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1mo
59%
Before 2025-02-01
·
15d

In June 2024 SpaceX demonstrated successful descent for both first and second stages of the Starship rocket. The potential next stage would be to try to land one or both stages.

This market will resolve positively as soon as SpaceX manages to land the second stage of Starship rocket after an orbital or suborbital flight. The spacecraft has to be landed on land and in one piece. It should presumably be captured by the launch tower, but other ways of landing on land or on a barge would also qualify. The rocket can sustain some damage, but the payload has to stay intact. The rocket also should stay in one piece for at least an hour after the landing.

I do not bet on my own questions.

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I don't think this is a priority this year

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