Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the earliest year in which a SpaceX Starship successfully lands on the Martian surface. A successful landing is defined as a Starship spacecraft touching down on Mars without catastrophic failure, as confirmed by official SpaceX communications or reputable news outlets. If no such landing occurs by the end of 2032, the market will resolve to "Later than 2032." If SpaceX announces the cancellation of the Starship Mars program, the market will resolve to "Never."

Background

Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, has outlined ambitious plans for Mars exploration using the Starship spacecraft. In September 2024, Musk announced intentions to launch uncrewed Starship missions to Mars in 2026, aiming to test landing capabilities. He projected that, if successful, crewed missions could commence as early as 2029, with 2031 being a more likely target. (space.com) These timelines are contingent upon overcoming significant technical challenges, including in-orbit refueling and life support systems.

Considerations

The feasibility of these timelines is subject to various factors, such as technological advancements, regulatory approvals, and funding. Historically, space missions have experienced delays due to unforeseen challenges. Additionally, the alignment of Earth and Mars, which occurs approximately every 26 months, dictates optimal launch windows, potentially impacting mission schedules. (space.com)