When will Starship first launch with useful payload?
31
6.5k
2025
1%
Before 2024-07-01
3%
Before 2024-08-01
14%
Before 2024-09-01
27%
Before 2024-10-01
33%
Before 2024-11-01
60%
Before 2024-12-01
75%
Before 2025-01-01
Resolved
NO
Before 2024-05-01
Resolved
NO
Before 2024-06-01

The market will resolve positively when SpaceX Starship rocket first launches any commercial or scientific payload into orbit. It could be a Starlink satellite, a commercial satellite from another company, or a scientific satellite even if it is launched pro bono.

Mass simulator or meme payloads like Elon's car do not count.

The payload should be deployed into the desired initial orbit (or an orbit close enough that it could be corrected by the satellite itself). The market will resolve even if the satellite itself malfunctions after the deployment.

I do not bet on my own questions.


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Does a tanker launch (payload is propellant for transfer to another starship) qualify, assuming the transfer occurs as planned but neither starship contains any other payload?

@OlegEterevsky Is this still the case if the transfer is only done as a transfer test?

@Mqrius Hmm. I didn’t really think this through because I expect that Starship will almost certainly be first used to launch Starlink satellites.

I suppose if the fuel is used to raise the orbit of the other Starship, then it can be considered “useful payload”. If it’s just pumped to another tank, then probably not. After all they’ve already performed a test pumping fuel from one tank to another.

@OlegEterevsky Yeah I'm expecting Starlinks first too, but that's a pretty good definition. Seems solid. Let's see how SpaceX is gonna find some secret third option :D

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