The market will resolve positively when SpaceX Starship rocket first launches any commercial or scientific payload into orbit. It could be a Starlink satellite, a commercial satellite from another company, or a scientific satellite even if it is launched pro bono.
Mass simulator or meme payloads like Elon's car do not count.
The payload should be deployed into the desired initial orbit (or an orbit close enough that it could be corrected by the satellite itself). The market will resolve even if the satellite itself malfunctions after the deployment.
I do not bet on my own questions.
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