Sorry for the near duplicate but thought people might like different milestones in one place for comparison.

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket

Musk: "The payload for all the flights this year is data" (Tim Dodd interview)

Does a tanker launch (payload is propellant for transfer to another starship) qualify, assuming the transfer occurs as planned but neither starship contains any other payload?

@SeekingEternity Yes

@OlegEterevsky Is this still the case if the transfer is only done as a transfer test?

@Mqrius Hmm. I didn’t really think this through because I expect that Starship will almost certainly be first used to launch Starlink satellites.

I suppose if the fuel is used to raise the orbit of the other Starship, then it can be considered “useful payload”. If it’s just pumped to another tank, then probably not. After all they’ve already performed a test pumping fuel from one tank to another.

@OlegEterevsky Yeah I'm expecting Starlinks first too, but that's a pretty good definition. Seems solid. Let's see how SpaceX is gonna find some secret third option :D