When will Starship first launch or land on Earth with human passengers?
36
1.3kṀ51532030
2%
In 2025 or earlier
7%
In 2026 or earlier
19%
In 2027 or earlier
52%
In 2028 or earlier
69%
In 2029 or earlier
74%
In 2030 or earlier
The market will resolve positively as soon as SpaceX Starship spacecraft launches from or lands on the Earth with human astronauts on board. At least one passenger has to survive the maneuver.
I do not bet on my own markets.
Similar question about humans on board at any time in the flight:
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-fly-in-space-wit
Related questions:
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-starship-reach-orb
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-the-4th-starship-launch-h
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-5-happen
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit?
When will Starship successfully land for the first time?
11/28/25
When will Starship first launch with useful payload?
When will Starship fly in space with a human on board?
In which year will Starship first launch with 50 or more people on board?
Where will the first crewed Starship landing happen?
When will Starship launch from Florida for the first time?
WHERE will Starship first land on Mars?
Will Starship conduct a manned launch before 2025?
1% chance
Will Starship launch at least [X] times before it launches with humans? [independent]