When will Starship first launch or land on Earth with human passengers?
30
3.1k
2025
1.6%
In 2024
4%
In 2025 or earlier
8%
In 2026 or earlier
15%
In 2027 or earlier
30%
In 2028 or earlier
55%
In 2029 or earlier
68%
In 2030 or earlier

The market will resolve positively as soon as SpaceX Starship spacecraft launches from or lands on the Earth with human astronauts on board. At least one passenger has to survive the maneuver.

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