When will SpaceX first reuse Superheavy (Starship 1st stage)?
36
1.2kṀ81272026
15%
Before 2025-04-01
57%
Before 2025-07-01
75%
Before 2025-10-01
79%
Before 2026-01-01
81%
Before 2026-04-01
87%
Before 2026-07-01
Resolved
NOBefore 2024-10-01
Resolved
NOBefore 2025-01-01
The market will resolve as soon as SpaceX manages to launch a Starship rocket, successfully land its first stage, aka Superheavy, and launch it for the second time. The second launch doesn't have to be fully successful, the market will resolve positively as long as the rocket leaves the pad.
I do not bet on my own questions.
Related questions:
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land-o1e8o780ic
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Sorry for the duplicate but thought people might like different milestones in one place for comparison.
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket
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