Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
78
1kṀ16kJul 2
87%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Whenever it launches, will the first flying stack of Starship on BFR put starship in orbit? (at least one pass around the Earth while above 100 km)
(if the first flight is not planned to orbit, wait for the first flight that is planned to orbit, but sub-orbital tests are some lame Blue Origin garbage)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 6 times before the end of 2025?
3% chance
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 8 times before the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 7 times before the end of 2025?
2% chance
When will Starship successfully land for the first time?
2/20/26
Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?
76% chance