Whenever it launches, will the first flying stack of Starship on BFR put starship in orbit? (at least one pass around the Earth while above 100 km)
(if the first flight is not planned to orbit, wait for the first flight that is planned to orbit, but sub-orbital tests are some lame Blue Origin garbage)
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May wish to extend the market close date at least until end of June @BrianOlson. Next near-orbital flight expected probably late May, so probably not going to see a full-orbit attempt for at least a month after that.
@BrianOlson Perhaps even less than 50% of an orbit. Hmm perhaps is less than 50% way around Earth anyway.
This notes that the Monday 4/17 test is not planning on orbit, but a highly elliptical hop up to 235km and back down at around 3/4 of a turn around the earth into the Pacific
https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/04/green-light-go-spacex-receives-a-launch-license-from-the-faa-for-starship/
@BrianOlson So if that is accurate (virtually certain that it is), I take it this market stays open
@Mqrius Yes, but it doesn't depend on the orbital parameters - the market description defines orbit as completing one pass around the earth at an altitude of >100km. We know they weren't intending that, and even if they were on an orbital trajectory with high perigee and subsequently did a deorbit burn to re-enter near Hawaii, they would still not count as being in orbit for the purposes of this market.
So when looking at that they intend, we're looking only at whether they intend to go around the earth at least once, which is a bit easier than figuring out what orbital parameters they were aiming for!
@BrianOlson Will you resolve this NO if the test is a complete success, but was never actually intended to complete a full orbit of earth?
@chrisjbillington Uf. Ok, if the first flight isn't an orbit attempt then I will wait for the first attempted orbit
@BrianOlson Heh, for what it's worth, the first test will be technically suborbital, depending on your definition. It will have a perigee in the atmosphere, so that it doesn't need to do a re-entry burn to re-enter. It will still be going at roughly orbital velocity, so it tests both getting up to orbital speeds and re-entering from orbital speeds, quite a step up from a new Shepard launch!