Will the 'Commitments' community have 50 or more markets by 2022-06-01?
17
335
Ṁ103
resolved May 30
Resolved
YES
Prediction markets can be used as commitment devices if you set a 99% initial probability of your own success - you lose your money if you fail but gain money if you succeed, with your gains being proportional to how unlikely you were to succeed. This seems to me to be a powerful idea, so I've created a community on Manifold around it. Will it catch on? Markets count regardless of open/closed resolved status. I won't count markets that don't place high initial odds - the idea is to incentivise your own success. Additional discussion: https://forum.beeminder.com/t/prediction-markets-as-commitment-devices/10202 Mar 2, 10:36pm: I won't count obvious spam markets. Mar 3, 7:46am: Link: https://manifold.markets/fold/commitments Close date updated to 2022-05-22 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm
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BEHOLD 50 COMMITMENT MARKETS: https://manifold.markets/April/will-i-call-insurance-about-hrt-and https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-i-finish-godel-escher-bach-by https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-i-read-50-books-in-2022 https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-i-submit-to-the-2022-astral-co https://manifold.markets/misha/i-will-do-cc67ff7-by-the-end-of-tod https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/rachel-will-finish-paper-editing-he https://manifold.markets/misha/will-i-stick-with-assigning-probabi https://manifold.markets/misha/will-i-finish-a-triathlon-4ea28f3c991e https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-i-send-a-beemail-by-midnight-p https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-i-create-a-post-on-the-ea-foru https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-i-go-to-the-gym-this-month https://manifold.markets/nmehndir/will-i-be-satisfied-with-how-i-spen https://manifold.markets/nmehndir/will-i-wake-up-on-time-tomorrow https://manifold.markets/AnaDalton/will-i-complete-japanese-duolingo-c https://manifold.markets/nmehndir/will-i-hit-my-fitness-goals-this-we https://manifold.markets/NuñoSempere/will-i-finish-a-triathlon https://manifold.markets/M/i-will-sent-that-email-within-2-hou https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/does-olivia-has-an-appointment-abou https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/will-i-run-at-least-500-hours-in-20 https://manifold.markets/pilotsofanewsky/will-i-meet-my-study-goals-tomorrow https://manifold.markets/BlazingDarkness/will-i-do-24-pushups-per-day-for-th https://manifold.markets/M/i-will-work-on-project-x-today https://manifold.markets/M/i-will-work-on-project-x-today-7fe1b0ef3cf7 https://manifold.markets/M/i-will-work-on-project-x-today-for https://manifold.markets/M/i-will-work-on-project-x-today-for-51e8fb5a0531 https://manifold.markets/BlazingDarkness/will-i-do-36-pushups-per-day-for-th https://manifold.markets/BlazingDarkness/will-i-sell-my-hair-in-march https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-i-end-up-importing-more-than-5 https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-i-work-for-at-least-8-hours-on https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-i-work-for-at-least-8-hours-on-d2ed6f36be42 https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-i-work-for-at-least-8-hours-on-7d5c3cee10b2 https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-i-host-a-social-event-with-at https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-i-create-15-new-markets-this-m https://manifold.markets/tcheasdfjkl/will-i-finish-my-pending-work-task https://manifold.markets/DKingsley/will-i-have-lost-twenty-or-more-pou https://manifold.markets/Undox/will-i-weigh-75-kg-or-less-at-some https://manifold.markets/NuñoSempere/will-i-create-at-least-10-markets-o https://manifold.markets/jbeshir/will-i-maintain-an-uninterrupted-du https://manifold.markets/NathanielLovin/will-i-apply-to-at-least-one-job-by https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/will-alex-power-resolve-all-of-his https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-dr-p-resolve-his-current-trump https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-i-be-signed-up-for-cryonics-by https://manifold.markets/misha/i-will-do-cc67ff7-by-the-end-of-tod https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-i-write-a-new-blog-post-today https://manifold.markets/Jack2/i-will-keep-making-commitment-marke https://manifold.markets/Jack2/i-will-submit-a-pr-to-manifold-befo https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-i-redesign-my-site-in-the-next https://manifold.markets/Jack2/i-will-switch-to-my-new-phone-by-th https://manifold.markets/misha/will-i-do-an-ambitious-work-thingy https://manifold.markets/Jack2/i-will-find-a-dentist-and-make-an-a Some of these are maybe a little sketchy or arguable, but so are some others that I didn't count. (In fact, I wonder whether I was right to exclude this market since @dreev used it as a commitment device.) Looks like a lot of people have gotten a lot done over the past few months thanks to making commitment markets, including several Manifold staff and the CEO of Beeminder! If that's not a proof of concept, I don't know what is 😅 I probably won't make another market like this, since sorting out the actual commitment markets from the ones where someone just added a tag was an unexpected time drain. But thanks to everyone who gave it a go! I feel like there's a tonne of room for development of this whole concept, so I look forward to seeing what else people do with it 😃 Some related markets: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-natively-support-comm - will commitment markets (or some other commitment device) become an explicit feature on Manifold? https://manifold.markets/dreev/which-of-these-possible-manifold-fo - how much should Manifold lean into this use case?
predicted YES
@NcyRocks thanks for resolving it!
By my count, 42 markets are clear commitments, 12 aren't, and there are 12 where it's not clear whether the market creator will actually profit if they do the Thing - if bets go public on schedule at the start of next month, I can use that to see who's bought in and who's not. This could still happen, but it's not a certain thing.
predicted YES
@NcyRocks thank you!
sold Ṁ13 of YES
Going through the markets now - the number's grown to 63, so this is looking underpriced!
Sorry about this - I've been meaning to go through those markets but haven't gotten around to it yet. Promise I'll do it by the end of tomorrow! The main criterion is whether the market maker is incentivised to do the Thing being committed to, so a market needs either a substantial bet on that (from the one committing to the thing) or a smaller estimated chance of success than the market maker initially set (I'm pretty sure that still makes the market creator money).
bought Ṁ95 of YES
Hey @NcyRocks, there are 55 unique markets under relevant tags, how many of them pass your test?
bought Ṁ1 of YES
I should note that by my criteria listed above, not all the markets in the community count (for example, this one doesn't!) since many of them start with low odds, losing the market creator money if they keep their 'commitment' and ultimately ruining the point. I don't know that they all need to start with 99% odds - I might count all markets with probabilities lower than what the creator set
bought Ṁ20 of YES
Taking Daniel Reeves' advice. :)
sold Ṁ847 of YES
Note that this is an Action Market, to use Scott Alexander's term. You can make a lot of money by buying YES and then creating more commitment markets!
sold Ṁ52 of NO
Taking a small profit and freeing up funds.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Looks like we're up to 20...
bought Ṁ1,000 of YES
As promised in the Beeminder forum discussion, I'm putting a lot of money on YES here, incentivizing me to help evangelize the idea of creating markets as commitment devices!
bought Ṁ75 of YES
I like the idea, and 3 months is a long time horizon. Don't think the community will crash and burn before hitting 50
bought Ṁ1 of YES
No, I won't count obvious spam. If someone makes a tonne of legit-looking commitments that's fine.
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Will you count obvious spam markets created to resolve this YES?

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