Will the 'Commitments' community have 50 or more markets by 2022-06-01?

Prediction markets can be used as commitment devices if you set a 99% initial probability of your own success - you lose your money if you fail but gain money if you succeed, with your gains being proportional to how unlikely you were to succeed. This seems to me to be a powerful idea, so I've created a community on Manifold around it. Will it catch on? Markets count regardless of open/closed resolved status. I won't count markets that don't place high initial odds - the idea is to incentivise your own success. Additional discussion: https://forum.beeminder.com/t/prediction-markets-as-commitment-devices/10202 Mar 2, 10:36pm: I won't count obvious spam markets. Mar 3, 7:46am: Link: https://manifold.markets/fold/commitments Close date updated to 2022-05-22 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ290
2		Ṁ102
3		Ṁ51
4		Ṁ36
5		Ṁ17

🏅 Top traders

People are also trading

Related questions