Will I run at least 500 hours in 2022?
Basic
66
Ṁ18k
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO

Resolves to YES if I have logged at least 500 hours of running on Strava in 2022. Activities that I will track as running: all kinds of running (road, trail, track, treadmill) including parts that are hiked when the main activity was a run (e.g., steep hills in a mountain race). Background: I am an avid runner. Last year I have logged 483 hours of running (rounded). My goal this year is 500 hours, though I am currently at 100 hours (roughly 20 hours behind schedule). My current estimate of the probability that I'll hit 500 hours is roughly 40 %. Apr 1, 9:44am: Will post a link to my Strava when I resolve (all runs and cumulative stats visible on there).

Jul 15, 9:12pm: As this is a commitment market, I will only buy YES and never sell (including shortly before resolution), regardless of which outcome I estimate to be most likely.

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predicted YES

This resolves as NO. In 2022, I ran 378 hours and 52 minutes.

Here is a good overview over how the year went:

In October, I quit my job and moved from the Alps to a larger (but flat) city to work on startup ideas. That meant less time, focus, and motivation for running. I did not know/anticipate this at the beginning of the year, but consciously made that decision in August. I had kind of hoped I could keep up running enough on the sides to make that goal, but that turned out not realistic. I do miss the routine, the fitness, and the friendships that running gives me, and I will ramp it up again. Excited to see what 2023 brings!

2023 goal:

predicted NO

@howtodowtle: I assume this can resolve, right?

predicted YES

2023 version of this market (same rules):

predicted NO

@howtodowtle You really don’t want to give us an update?

predicted NO

@NicoDelon Looks like they've been active on Manifold within the past few days, so they are aware that people are asking for updates. They're under no obligation to give such updates though, so let's not spam them with the same request.

Perhaps they got back on track to make their goal, and are hoping to turn a profit by keeping quiet and bidding the market up at the last minute? Not sure why that would be a better strategy than bidding it up now and then giving us their update though.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing I didn’t suggest they were under any such obligation. Nor am I spamming. They’ve provided updates previously, others have asked. Given how hyperactive you are on here, I don’t recommend going around lecturing people in comments too often. We see your name a lot already. Thanks.

predicted YES

@NicoDelon Haha, thanks checking in. I have been actively ignoring these because I thought the update would convey too much information and make the market less interesting. 😁

I've been working on some. startup ideas the last couple of months and had some minor niggles at the same time, so I have been running way less than the rest of the year.

So while technically still possible, it seems very unlikely that I'll do 500 hours. 😔

But I'll do the same goal for next year and make all that money back! 😊

predicted NO

@howtodowtle No worries! I’m not expecting anything from you. Happy to provide encouragements if you’re close to your goal though—even if I lost money I’d be happy to bet YES as a boost.

predicted NO

@NicoDelon I know firsthand how tough sticking to running goals can be, especially late in the year. Keep it up and better luck next year!

predicted YES

@NicoDelon Thanks, but you should totally bet on the best betting outcome. 😊 No hard feelings here at all. At least the startup thing was a conscious decision that entailed de-prioritizing running. And I've run long enough to know I'll be back and better than before. 🤩

predicted NO

@NicoDelon The great thing about prediction markets as commitment devices is that buying NO is a boost, since the creator can make more money from their success!

predicted NO

@NicoDelon Buying YES does the exact opposite, in fact. You should only do that if you actually believe that the thing will happen, in which case the creator doesn't need a boost.

predicted NO

@NcyRocks I meant it in the sense that it’s an expression of ‘we believe in you’. I don’t speculate on what it does psychologically to the creator.

predicted NO

@NicoDelon I suppose so; but if you believe in someone like that, then surely you should just place the bet?

predicted NO

@NcyRocks You’re reading too much into this.

predicted NO

Any update?

predicted NO

How’s the last stretch shaping up?

I'm counting on you

predicted YES

353 hours, 53 behind schedule

I believe in you

predicted YES

351 hours, 46 behind schedule.

predicted YES

Haha, thanks for the belief. :D

345 hours, 39 hours behind schedule.

waiting for "by the way I'm signed up for a thanksgiving and a christmas ultramarathon :^)"

Dude, I bet against you as motivation for you to get this goal. But you are super close. I’m not really seeing an issue with you getting this you just need to put in some big weekend days at real slow pace. I’m beginning to think you are trolling to get more people on the offer :)

predicted YES

343 hours, 39 hours behind schedule... 😑

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