Resolves to YES if I have logged at least 500 hours of running on Strava in 2022. Activities that I will track as running: all kinds of running (road, trail, track, treadmill) including parts that are hiked when the main activity was a run (e.g., steep hills in a mountain race). Background: I am an avid runner. Last year I have logged 483 hours of running (rounded). My goal this year is 500 hours, though I am currently at 100 hours (roughly 20 hours behind schedule). My current estimate of the probability that I'll hit 500 hours is roughly 40 %. Apr 1, 9:44am: Will post a link to my Strava when I resolve (all runs and cumulative stats visible on there).
Jul 15, 9:12pm: As this is a commitment market, I will only buy YES and never sell (including shortly before resolution), regardless of which outcome I estimate to be most likely.
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This resolves as NO. In 2022, I ran 378 hours and 52 minutes.
Here is a good overview over how the year went:
In October, I quit my job and moved from the Alps to a larger (but flat) city to work on startup ideas. That meant less time, focus, and motivation for running. I did not know/anticipate this at the beginning of the year, but consciously made that decision in August. I had kind of hoped I could keep up running enough on the sides to make that goal, but that turned out not realistic. I do miss the routine, the fitness, and the friendships that running gives me, and I will ramp it up again. Excited to see what 2023 brings!
2023 goal:
@NicoDelon Looks like they've been active on Manifold within the past few days, so they are aware that people are asking for updates. They're under no obligation to give such updates though, so let's not spam them with the same request.
Perhaps they got back on track to make their goal, and are hoping to turn a profit by keeping quiet and bidding the market up at the last minute? Not sure why that would be a better strategy than bidding it up now and then giving us their update though.
@IsaacKing I didn’t suggest they were under any such obligation. Nor am I spamming. They’ve provided updates previously, others have asked. Given how hyperactive you are on here, I don’t recommend going around lecturing people in comments too often. We see your name a lot already. Thanks.
@NicoDelon Haha, thanks checking in. I have been actively ignoring these because I thought the update would convey too much information and make the market less interesting. 😁
I've been working on some. startup ideas the last couple of months and had some minor niggles at the same time, so I have been running way less than the rest of the year.
So while technically still possible, it seems very unlikely that I'll do 500 hours. 😔
But I'll do the same goal for next year and make all that money back! 😊
@howtodowtle No worries! I’m not expecting anything from you. Happy to provide encouragements if you’re close to your goal though—even if I lost money I’d be happy to bet YES as a boost.
@NicoDelon I know firsthand how tough sticking to running goals can be, especially late in the year. Keep it up and better luck next year!
@NicoDelon Thanks, but you should totally bet on the best betting outcome. 😊 No hard feelings here at all. At least the startup thing was a conscious decision that entailed de-prioritizing running. And I've run long enough to know I'll be back and better than before. 🤩
@NicoDelon The great thing about prediction markets as commitment devices is that buying NO is a boost, since the creator can make more money from their success!
@NicoDelon Buying YES does the exact opposite, in fact. You should only do that if you actually believe that the thing will happen, in which case the creator doesn't need a boost.
@NcyRocks I meant it in the sense that it’s an expression of ‘we believe in you’. I don’t speculate on what it does psychologically to the creator.
@NicoDelon I suppose so; but if you believe in someone like that, then surely you should just place the bet?