Will I finish "Gödel, Escher, Bach" by 2023?

Basic

Ṁ14k

resolved Dec 6

Resolved

YES

ALL

I haven't started it yet. This market is a commitment device; I'm putting my own money at stake to incentivise me to succeed. Close date updated to 2022-07-31 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Personal Goals

Get

1,000

and

3.00

15 Comments

13 Holders

281 Trades

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predictedNO

Yay! Congratz! Did you enjoy the book?

predictedYES

@Lorenzo Very much so! Highly recommended, although you maybe don't have to read the whole thing like I did...

How’s it looking?

predictedYES

@Conflux Almost done and see no reason why I won't finish now. Just need to find some time to read the last bit in one go so I can read something else 😅

@NcyRocks Gotcha. Nice!

predictedYES

"Will I finish "Gödel, Escher, Bach" by 2023?"

Point taken about the middle third! I'm still pretty sure I can do this - I can increase the rate if need be. I'd bet more if I had more M$. (As I type this, the text above says that I sold M$9 of YES - this might be technically true since I still had some NO shares from creating the market, but what I actually did was buy M$50 of YES.)

predictedNO

This path started with slack for 5 derails this year. 13% of the time in, 20% of the slack has been consumed.

If you're falling off this early, there is *no way* you get through the middle third remotely fast enough. *Everyone* slows down substantially for the nitty-gritty, pretty-bland parts in the middle third of GEB. You will need all the slack in the Beeminder goal and more just for that third.

Motivational ping for @NcyRocks 1 day before beeminder derail!

Graph added: https://www.beeminder.com/ncyrocks/eternalgoldenbraid

@Lorenzo I'll try not to disappoint you - but hey, even if I fail you make a profit! Figured I should try to restore the market to the baseline myself so your money actually goes to me...

Paying M$ to incentivise you to read it, since I also think it's a very fun and interesting book! (Probably my second favourite book) I would suggest quickly skimming the obviously outdated stuff (mostly about neuroscience), or parts that you don't find interesting (for me it was the dialogue about the phonograph), so you can focus on the cool stuff. Really hope to lose this one!

I'm buing YES because you *should* read it :-)

The probability would go way up if you added a Beeminder graph...

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