Will Manifold natively support "committing to actions" within 6 months?
6
604Ṁ220resolved Jul 25
Resolved
NO1H
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Reasons to do this:
We've actually seen this particular use case picking up steam among users:
- https://manifold.markets/misha/will-i-finish-a-triathlon-4ea28f3c991e
- https://manifold.markets/guzey/will-i-create-at-least-one-more-pre
- https://manifold.markets/misha/will-i-stick-with-assigning-probabi
Also, one of our most ardent supporters is @dreev, the founder of Beeminder. I think Beeminder is counterfactually responsible for about 1 more blog post and 2 exercise sessions since I started ~2 months ago; I've also paid them ~$100 in fees, which seemed easily worth it.
Also, commitment devices are a great way of managing acausal trade: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ndvguMbcdAMXzTHJG/what-we-owe-the-past
Also, @Sinclair has been musing about managing reputation/flakiness/commitment publicly via markets on eg "Will I actually show up to the party I said I was for sure going to go to?"
Reasons not to do this:
- More complexity is bad (very good reason!!)
- Not enough dev time to get to
- ???
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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