Will I sell my hair in March?
Will I sell my hair in March?
16
100Ṁ411resolved Apr 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
It's already been chopped and has been sitting in the living room braided for over a month and a half; I just have to do the actual selling. But that's intimidating and exactly the sort of task I'm bad at. Initial probability set somewhat high to hopefully motivate me.
This market resolves YES if, before 2022/04/01, someone has given me money for at least one braid and it is no longer in my house because it's on its way to them.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.