Will I have lost twenty or more pounds by Apr. 24, 2022?
29
353
Ṁ100
resolved Apr 12
Resolved
YES
I am currently overweight and plan to lose some weight. I do not intend to have any form of surgery or use extreme dehydration techniques like some athletes, I just plan to eat less and lose weight via caloric deficit. (I may start exercising more as well but this is not the main part of this plan.) Based on reference class forecasting from previous weight loss, I believe that by doing so I will likely be able to lose at least twenty pounds in the next two months. This market will resolve as 'YES' if I have successfully lost twenty pounds or more, as measured by my bathroom scale, by Apr. 24th 2022 (two months from now). If I successfully lose this weight prior to the market close time I will resolve the market early. My current weight by this scale (just checked) is 207.70 lbs, so that would mean my target is a weight at or below 187.70 lbs. If demographic factors are relevant for people betting, I am a male in his late 20s or early 30s (don't want to be too specific here) and 6'2" tall. Feb 24, 4:52pm: If my current scale breaks I will get a new one and assume that it is validly weighing me. Close date updated to 2022-04-24 11:59 pm
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bought Ṁ100 of YES
Confidence is a strong indicator.
bought Ṁ119 of YES
Betting more on self
bought Ṁ100 of NO
I wish you all the best!!!! you can do it! betting against it still. Sorry, loosing 10% in two month might not impossible, but is very very hard. When you do more sports you also am more hungry. If you make it I will be happy that I lost though
sold Ṁ127 of NO
cashing out a profit because it's entirely doable and I was only betting against the certainty!
bought Ṁ356 of YES
Betting more on self
bought Ṁ20 of YES
I have faith in you. You got this. Do you currently exercise regularly? With a decent diet and regular weightlifting/exercise, this is easily achievable for a male in their 20s or 30s.
bought Ṁ25 of NO
I converted to metric and that is over 1 kg per week, which is a very aggressive weight loss track, especially since you aren't really huge now. Wish you luck anyway!
bought Ṁ1,000 of YES
I believe in u
bought Ṁ277 of YES
Betting more on self
bought Ṁ15 of NO
I wish you the best, but that comes out to a ~1150 daily calorie deficit, which seems difficult at that weight. I've lost 160 lbs in the last year at an average deficit of 1500 calories, but I started at a much higher weight than you and I've been slowing down.
bought Ṁ2 of YES
Eh, I believe in you. Keeping it off is tricky in the long term, but willpower will do for initial shedding.
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Partly aligning your incentives, partly my own experience that it's hard.

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