Will I stick with assigning probabilities to work stuff for 3 weeks?
Resolved
YES
May 26
M$1,336 bet
I always felt uneasy about commitment devices and had mixed success with them. I am experimenting with reframing them as "strong suggestions" that I expect to happen with a certain probability. Then if I want something actually to happen, I can think if I can drive my chances closer to 100% (pre-mortems are great). As an experiment, I will be assigning probabilities to ≥ 6 work events during biweekly planning sessions for 3 weeks (so 6 in total). To fulfill, I need to assign probabilities to ≥ 6 events during each session and rate my predictions afterward.

💬 Proven correct

guzey

Alexey Guzey bought M$200 of YES20 days ago

I will make Misha do it.
Alexey Guzey made M$54!
misha

@misha is betting YES at 89% 10 days ago

I think 2 more successes, 2 times to go…
misha

@misha 19 days ago

I did it twice so far; four more times to go.
misha

@misha 19 days ago

@Austin, I am glad Beeminder is helpful to you! I love it for just tracking something. But Beeminder's mindsets do not align well with mine. Briefly, I don't feel like having no-excuse contracts about logging something into Beeminder. I would rather imitate it via coach/friend, where I strive to be ~professional and don't bullshit myself because I am ~interrigated about possible slips by another person.
guzey

Alexey Guzey is betting YES at 76% 20 days ago

I give up :(
agrippa

agrippa bought M$10 of NO20 days ago

dont give in to violent rhetoric
guzey

Alexey Guzey bought M$600 of YES20 days ago

Misha I will fucking kill you if you fail. I bet everything I had on you.
guzey

Alexey Guzey bought M$200 of YES20 days ago

I will make Misha do it.
Austin

Austin bought M$50 of NO20 days ago

I hope you do! But as @agrippa said, habits are easy to drop, and also I'd be happy to pay to have you succeed. (Also: have you tried Beeminder? I think it's counterfactually responsible for about 1 more blog post and 2 exercise sessions since I started ~2 months ago; I've also paid them ~$100 in fees, which seemed easily worth it)
guzey

Alexey Guzey bought M$200 of YES20 days ago

I will make Misha do it.
agrippa

agrippa bought M$10 of NO22 days ago

reasoning: its the kind of habit people drop