Which of these Possible Manifold Foci should be Manifold's primary focus?
10
740Ṁ376resolved Jun 27
48%46%
[LABOR] Pay for or get paid for research
12%11%
[FORUM] Pose questions, reach consensus
11%11%
[4CAST] Go-to place to see what the market thinks a la Metaforecast and ElectionBettingOdds
10%9%
[BMNDR] Commit and track reliability
9%9%
[PBOOK] Hone applied rationality a la PredictionBook
6%5%
[WAGER] Quantified disagreement a la LongBets and BIATOB
2%1.6%
[AGAPE] Charity prediction markets and EA
1%1.3%
[GAMBL] Compete with Betfair et al
6%Other
This question resolves mostly beauty-contest-style (close date extended until quiescence) to the things Manifold should be most focused on. I say "mostly beauty contest" because I'll veto anything I don't think belongs on the list. If a response is added that I agree should be on the list then I'll append it to the list below. So this resolves beauty-contest-style except anything not on this list will get a weight of 0% in the resolution.
Of course these overlap a lot and all or most of them sound awesome but conventional startup wisdom is to have as narrow a focus as possible so probably Manifold should double down on at most a few and explicitly deprioritize others.
List of Possible Manifold Foci:
* [GAMBL] Be a trading exchange; compete with Betfair and PredictIt et al
* [WAGER] Be a place to have quantified disagreements and see who's right; be a better version of BIATOB.com ("betting is a tax on bullshit") or LongBets.org
* [AGAPE] Charity prediction markets and Effective Altruism!
* [4CAST] Be the go-to place to see "what the market thinks" about topics in the news; compete with Metaforecast and ElectionBettingOdds
* [FORUM] Be a community in which people pose questions and reach consensus; this implies a focus on the commenting system
* [PBOOK] Be a tool to hone applied rationality skills a la PredictionBook.com; calibration graphs FTW!
* [BMNDR] Be a place to commit to things and track your reliability a la Beeminder
* [LABOR] Be a place to pay for or get paid for research, like how you can add liquidity to a market to incentivize participation
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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