Max Payne's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.37
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Max Payne bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
- Will it be possible to short an answer on a free-response market by the end of 2024?YESṀ400
- Will there be an serious coup attempt in Russia aganist Putin (successful or unsuccessful) by the end of 2023NOṀ300
- Will BT flight 1111 from Munich to Zurich on 2023-08-15 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?YESṀ100