If Elon Musk remains in charge as CEO of Twitter through December 31st, 2023, this market will resolve to "Yes".
If he steps down or leaves for whatever reason, even if temporarily, this market will resolve to "No".
related:
other 2023 Elon CEO markets:
Elon Musk, tech titan bold,
Twitter's CEO or so we're told,
But will he lead, or will he go?
Only time will truly know.
Twitter Inc. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said he aims to find his successor to lead the social-media company toward the end of 2023.
...
“I think I need to stabilize the organization and just make sure it’s in a financially healthy place and the product road map is clearly laid out,” Musk said. “I’m guessing towards the end of this year should be a good timing to find someone else to run the company, because I think it should be in stable condition around the end of this year.”
The implication seems to be that the search process will be toward the end of the year, so after 2023 seems correct for the start date.
I also made a market on the same thing that will resolve next week to the estimate that Metaculus will give then. So you can bet on this without potentially waiting a year. Alternatively, you can arbitrage depending on what you think Manifold’s or Metaculus’ biases are:
I think technically he isn't CEO:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/musk-says-chief-twit-no-121327601.html
@LudwigBald yes and few days later Twitter submitted some official documents (delisting?) with Musk as CEO
I expect Musk to name a CEO to run the company day-to-day, he can oversee it while focusing on his twenty other companies.
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Will Elon Musk be Twitter's CEO through 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition