Will China provide weapons to Russia in 2023?
resolved Jan 10

Resolves YES if reliable media publications report that China has provided lethal aid (weapons, ammunition, etc) to Russia, in 2023. Otherwise NO.

Clarification: The provision of lethal aid must be reported to take place in 2023, and the reporting must be published by the end of 2023. If no such report is published by the end of 2023, resolves NO.

Context: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/02/23/chinas-calculation-on-supplying-russia-with-weapons-00084128

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predicted YES

I did some searching and was not able to find reporting of China providing lethal aid to Russia in 2023. So it looks like a NO, unless someone finds such an article satisfying the resolution criteria. Will wait a couple days for anyone to chime in.

predicted YES

Note that there were a few reports in the comments below that to my knowledge were not sufficient to resolve YES:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/13/russia-china-weapons-leaked-documents-discord/ - doesn't say if or when the weapons were actually sent

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/16/chinese-rifles-body-armor-russia-ukraine-00087398 - happened in 2022

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/19/china-helping-arm-russia-helicopters-drones-metals-xi-putin/ - more mixed use goods (classified as civilian but with some military applications), not considered lethal aid.

predicted NO

Resolve? @jack

predicted YES

The Ukrainian military found a Chinese-made 60-mm Type 83 (M-83A) Mortar bomb on Russian positions in the Melitopol region.


predicted YES

@jack does this count? Specially the optical sights in 2023.


predicted YES

@MickBransfield I'm not sure, but probably not - if the media isn't willing to say it's lethal aid, probably doesn't count.

Such goods are classified as dual-use, meaning they also have civilian purposes, allowing China to skirt international sanctions and claim that it conducts only legal trade with Russia.

Invoices state such equipment is for “hunting,” though the devices could be fitted to military weapons, and offer enhanced vision for military operations.

Also, these are parts, and China also has supplied fighter jet parts: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/investigations/china-helps-russia-evade-sanctions-tech-used-ukraine-war-rcna96693 which seems to be similar, I guess that probably counts as much as the optical sights.

predicted YES


Evidence of this kind shows that China, despite Beijing’s calls for peace, is pushing right up to a red line in delivering enough nonlethal, but militarily useful, equipment to Russia to have a material impact on President Vladimir Putin’s 17-month-old war on Ukraine. The protective gear would be sufficient to equip many of the men mobilized by Russia since the invasion. Then there are drones that can be used to direct artillery fire or drop grenades, and thermal optical sights to target the enemy at night.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

This bot seems to be very convinced about their NO position. 😂

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@MaxPayne It's trading on 2 identical markets on opposite sides.

bought Ṁ200 of YES


Chinese Firm Sent Large Shipments of Gunpowder to Russian Munitions Factory

On two separate occasions last year, railroad cars carrying tens of thousands of kilograms of smokeless powder — enough propellant to collectively make at least 80 million rounds of ammunition — rumbled across the China-Russia border at the remote town of Zabaykalsk.

predicted YES

Ramzan Kadyrov shows off brand new Shaanxi Baoji Special Vehicles Manufacturing Co. "Tiger" vehicles from China, for use in the Special Military Operation


predicted YES

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/13/russia-china-weapons-leaked-documents-discord/ "Russia says China agreed to secretly provide weapons, leaked documents show"

predicted YES


Chinese companies, including one connected to the government in Beijing, have sent Russian entities 1,000 assault rifles and other equipment that could be used for military purposes, including drone parts and body armor, according to trade and customs data obtained by POLITICO.

The shipments took place between June and December 2022

Since that was in 2022 it doesn't count towards this question, but if they made such shipments in 2023 that seems like it would count.