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https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russias-moon-mission-falters-after-problem-entering-pre-landing-orbit-2023-08-20/

Russia's first lunar mission in 47 years smashes into the moon in failure

Russia's first moon mission in 47 years failed when its Luna-25 space craft spun out of control and crashed into the moon after a problem preparing for pre-landing orbit, underscoring the post-Soviet decline of a once mighty space programme.

Now for India 👀

Resolves Yes based on Roscosmos statement

RIP

https://apnews.com/article/russia-space-roscosmos-crash-658f5118c34cfa0f1501cc7522074323

The Russian space agency says its Luna-25 spacecraft has crashed into the moon.

The Russian space agency says its Luna-25 spacecraft has crashed into the moon after it had spun into uncontrolled orbit.

Note to self:

Read the news before increasing your NO bet:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/russias-luna-25-spacecraft-produces-first-results-space-agency-says-2023-08-19/

Russia's Luna-25 spacecraft suffers technical glitch, space agency says

An "abnormal situation" occurred at Russia's Luna-25 spacecraft on Saturday as it was preparing to transfer to its pre-landing orbit, Russia's national space agency Roskosmos said.

@uair01 some say it is crashed already );

F

@ICRainbow I haven't seen any further info besides the initial statement by roscosmos, just articles quoting that one statement. But tbh it's not looking hopeful 😬

@Mqrius it's dead, Jim.

https://t.me/roscosmos_gk/10540

Госкорпорация «Роскосмос»

🔴 19 августа в соответствии с программой полёта КА «Луна-25» была предусмотрена выдача импульса для формирования его предпосадочной эллиптической орбиты. Около 14:57 мск связь с КА «Луна-25» прервалась. Реализованные 19 и 20 августа мероприятия по поиску аппарата и вхождению с ним в связь результатов не дали. По результатам предварительного анализа, в связи с отклонением фактических параметров импульса от рассчетных, аппарат перешел на нерасчетную орбиту и прекратил свое существование в результате столкновения с поверхностью Луны. Вопросами выяснения причин потери «Луны» займется специально формируемая межведомственная комиссия.

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What is the objective it is meant to achieve?

@CorySchneider good question. It has a dozen vaguely defined objectives, and I wonder which one this market's owner has in mind.

@CorySchneider The objective is landing and transmitting back to earth. Catastrophic implies crash, no?

@BTE Catastrophic failure doesn’t necessarily imply a crash, but my main thought is that the title and the body imply two different (sets of) conditions. It could land without catastrophic failure, yet fail to “achieve its objectives”.

@CorySchneider I see. My intent was to resolve this market YES if the lander fails to communicate that it has landed safely. I never even looked at the post landing objectives, so bad choice of words in the description on my part, sorry about that.

@BTE No worries. I’m new around here and just getting a feel for how rigorous the resolution criteria tend to be. Not trying to bust your balls.

I hope they stick the landing!

@CorySchneider No worries! And welcome!! Feel free to bust my balls anytime LOL!!

For reference, the head of Russia's space agency's estimate of failure was 30%.

@ShadowyZephyr interesting.. source?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02536-2

"In June, Yuri Borisov, head of Russia’s space agency Roscosmos, described the Luna 25 mission as “high risk”, with a 70% chance of success."

@ShadowyZephyr funny that their presently stated 70% success rate contradicts their earlier statements about maximum allowed failure rate:

On 2023 June 13th, in an interview for TASS, representatives of Lavochkin Research and Production Association ("НПО имени Лавочкина") said: "In accordance with the Terms of Reference, the probability of mission success must be at least 80%.”
Source.