Will the right wing party AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) in Germany be above 20% in surveys at the end of the year?
closes Dec 31

This resolves yes according to the last posted results on Twitter @Wahlen_DE in 2023 for "Sonntagsfrage Bundestagswahl" if it's 21% or more.

They currently (30th of June) stand at 19%.

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Thomas42 avatar
Thomas Mpredicts YES
Thomas42 avatar
Thomas Mpredicts YES
calcium1445 avatar
calcium 1445bought Ṁ10 of NO

I'm going with no, this is surge is mainly due to general dissatisfaction with the main parties, I'm betting this is Midterm malaise and the mainstream ones will recapture the electorates attention going into Christmas

WieDan avatar
Wie Danpredicts YES

What are the chances Wagenknecht joins the polling?

2 replies
CertaintyOfVictory avatar
Certainty of Victorypredicts YES

@WieDan Difficult to say. I'll update when it happens.

WieDan avatar
Wie Danpredicts YES

@CertaintyOfVictory Seems the biggest risk of the AfD dropping.

MaxG avatar
MaxGpredicts NO

My argument for leaning no is that they are having a hype cycle for some reason but there will be regression to the mean to lower polling numbers.

2 replies
Symmetry avatar
Symmetrypredicts YES

@MaxG Debatable. The AfD continues to clearly trend upwards in the aggregated polls. Just today it reached a 23% all-time high in the newest GMS poll (YouGov also assesss them to be there). Historically, the AfD isn't really prone to sudden movement in the polls like the established parties (hype-cycles as you call it. Mostly because they lack support from the media). This implies that people who want to vote for the party do so very deliberately and are unlikely to quickly change their mind again.
On top, the reasons for people defecting to the AfD will not go away in the forseeable future. IMO, at 49%, this market is still priced way too conservative.

EDIT: Forsa also just came out with a new AfD all-time high (22%).

MaxG avatar
MaxGpredicts NO

@Symmetry Good points!

marktweise avatar
Marktweisebought Ṁ400 of YES
JustifieduseofFallibilism avatar

Does anyone know why the AFD is so popular at the moment? I understand why people vote for them in general but why now? Covid is over, there is no flood of migrants coming to Germany at the moment, there hasn't been a recent Muslim terrorist attack?

5 replies
JustifieduseofFallibilism avatar

@JustifieduseofFallibilism I guess the current governement is just less popular than Merkel, so more people vote for the opposition.

kottsiek avatar
kottsiekpredicts NO

@JustifieduseofFallibilism economy is doing bad, even compared to other european countries

twink_joan_didion avatar
Twink Joan Didionbought Ṁ47 of NO

@JustifieduseofFallibilism meh while i agree it's marginally worse now, something to keep in mind is that it's always been this way to some extent - from what i've seen there's always been a faction that floats 10-20% depending on sampling bias. i think the media just feels like sensationalizing it at the moment for normal reasons

Yorwba avatar
Yorwbapredicts NO

@twink_joan_didion They jumped ahead of the SPD after the announcement that Germany was officially in recession at the end of May 2023 and are now polling in second place after the CDU/CSU. That's fairly unusual.

Their previous high was 17.5% back in September 2018, and that was rather short-lived.

marktweise avatar
Marktweisepredicts YES

@JustifieduseofFallibilism To my understanding the main point of people switching to AfD is a desire for tighter refugee policies. Why now? No clue.

twink_joan_didion avatar
Twink Joan Didionbought Ṁ5 of NO

7-day average is sitting at 20,0% exactly on Jul 9 (twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1678115423244435457)

marktweise avatar
Marktweisebought Ṁ50 of YES
JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray


Just based on eyeballing this graph, 28% seems reasonable