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23%

First results under 20% for a long time came in today.

@JakobSchmidt Note this is the Allensbach poll which has consistently put AfD below 20% for the entire year. They seem to publish once a month so they are unlikely to be the last ones this year.

@Thomas42 You are right

22% now reporting on @wahlen_de https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1736023750192103448?t=PeN5vMYmF_IDOpgNCEgLdg&s=19

Oh wait I just read the description. I thought more than 20% would also include 20.5%, etc why does it have to be a 1% margin?

So Wahlen_DE stopped polling Wagenknecht, I guess they only did it a few times to see if there was support or whatever?

@WieDan It seems it was only there once during the week the party was announced.

@AlexbGoode Well I only sold my old yes position because of her. So I guess I'm back into yes.

@WieDan they don't do any polling of their own, they just aggregate different polls from other places. Those other places will probably resume polling for bsw once they officially announce they are running for the Bundestag. So I think at this point this market is likely about whether that will happen in time or not.

It looks rather bleak in the polls. But resistance is forming https://afd-verbot.de/

@AlexbGoode what the heck even is this

@Thomas42 It seems like it is a collection of evidence that many members of the AfD are a danger to the constitution and reject the idea of a free and democratic way of life.

It also contains a rather funny (ymmv) deep fake of Olaf.

@AlexbGoode do I parse this correctly though as being some sort of effort to rally pro-afd votes by pretending there is going to be a ban? Or do you think this is a genuine effort? How else does the fake Olaf and federal logo at the top of the page make sense.

@Thomas42 ah nevermind it's from the Zentrum for politische Schönheit, i.e. political performance art.

I just noticed the phrasing of the question assumes rounding is happening ("it's 21% or more"), but in some cases they also seem to report fractional numbers, at least in the spreadsheet. Can we assume that the most accurate number available represented by the tweet will be used to judge if it's >20, or do you really mean >=21?

@Thomas42 @Schlitty can you clarify please?

So this week they have it both with (AFD < 20%) and without the BSW (AFD > 20%). Which counts for this question?

https://nitter.net/Wahlen_DE/status/1718195130912457115#m

@Vergissfunktor Tough. Technically, "with BSW" was posted last.

It is weird that the results are so different. Couldn't BSW-voters go for "others" if BSW is not available?

@marketwise I will reiterate that hypothetical questions such as this one have literally no predictive power.

/AlexbGoode/will-sarah-wagenknechts-bsw-be-part

Is this just the surveys?

@AlexbGoode Also a state version: /AlexbGoode/which-german-states-will-have-sarah

@AlexbGoode /marketwise/name-of-sahra-wagenknechts-new-part

Im deep in the red but doubling down based on initial polls showing AfD only 2 points below the bar right after Sarah Wagenknechts announcement. Good chance she manages to alienate those 2% again in the remaining months.

@Thomas42 also, emotional hedging.

@Thomas42 I put up a limit order. Feel free to hedge some more