resolved Dec 30

This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 75% probability.

After Dylan Matthews biffed it last year when he predicted that the 2022 Academy Award for Best Picture would go to Belfast, a movie that I’m still not 100 percent sure was real, I’m hesitant to wade into Carpetbagger territory. This is compounded by the fact that of the 10 films Variety projects have the best chance at taking home the gold statuette, I’ve seen precisely two: the honestly overrated Everything Everywhere All at Once and the 131 minutes of “America! Fuck yeah!” that is Top Gun: Maverick. You have that right: I am the reason that critically acclaimed films are bombing at the box office.

But even though I’m no cineaste, I’ve watched enough Oscar telecasts to have a pretty good idea of what the Academy is looking for. And it is not, apparently, movies that audiences go to see. While nearly every Best Picture winner between 1980 and 2003 was among the 20 top-grossing movies of the year, only three winners since have cracked that list.

Top Gun: Maverick isn’t just the highest-grossing film of the year, it has nearly doubled the performance of its closest competitor, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Add that to its summer release — recently, the Academy has mostly preferred films released near the end of the year — and the odds are bad for the fighter plane flick. If I had to choose a winner, it would be Tár, because why wouldn’t an industry facing an existential audience crisis choose a critically acclaimed film that no one has seen? But I do expect Top Gun: Maverick to take home the award for Best Visual Effects, both for the amazing, real-life dogfighting sequences and for whatever it is that keeps 60-year-old Tom Cruise looking ageless.


Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.

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predicted YES

@NcyRocks a market for Please Resolve.

predicted YES

@MaxPayne well, "Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year."

predicted YES

@jack This is supposed to resolve at the end of the year.

predicted YES

@brp I don't see a good reason to wait - is there something I'm missing?

Even if somehow Vox judged the question differently, then it could just be re-resolved then.

In general, I think if you can be >99% certain of the outcome, you should resolve instead of waiting and keeping people's mana locked up, and re-resolve in the <1% case of an unexpected change. For example, we resolve markets on who won an election when they are called, even though those calls are wrong sometimes. (This was one of the reasons I advocated for being able to re-resolve.)

@jack I agree with you and am quite self-interested in the market resolving early. However, I recognize that @a specified in the description that the market will follow Vox. This was not the smartest investment (I'm locking it all away for a 2% return), and so will have to agressively invest the loans.

predicted YES

FYI: I asked @DavidChee about it on markets like, and he said that he was resolving them YES when the criteria were fulfilled. This market is Arae's so it doesn't necessarily have to follow the same guidance, but I think that we have good agreement on the general principle.

predicted YES

@a This should resolve YES

predicted NO

@jack what if they issue a correction?!?!

predicted NO

@Spindle im quite self-interested in this market remaining open for the rest of the year, and I'll complain if u rezolve it early

predicted NO

@Spindle if I have 2 put in moar mana for "NO" I will

predicted YES

@Spindle Please do. I've got some limit orders I need to fill.

@Spindle would you be OK with resolving the market after, say, a week, and then having Manifold staff re-resolve it if Vox says that the movie did win?