Will the CDU be part of the governing coalition after the Feb election in Berlin?
Will the CDU be part of the governing coalition after the Feb election in Berlin?
15
310Ṁ4550resolved Apr 23
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
At the recent repeated election (12th Feb 23) in Berlin the Conservative Party CDU got the most votes (~28%), followed by the social democrats (SPD, ~18%). There is a majority for the current left-ish coalition (SPD, greens, left party Die Linke), but other coalitions are possible at this time (e.g. CDU and SPD)
You can find the results here: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/02/13/world/scholz-worst-berlin-election-result/
This market resolves as soon as the first coalition is formally approved.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ308 | |
| 2 | Ṁ90 | |
| 3 | Ṁ41 | |
| 4 | Ṁ33 | |
| 5 | Ṁ19 |
People are also trading
Will the CDU in eastern german states try to form a government with the far-right AfD after the next election?
9% chance
Which coalition will govern Germany after the next federal election?
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
15% chance
Will the broadly centrist parties still have a majority after the next German Bundestag election?
63% chance
Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?
73% chance
WIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?
31% chance
Which coalition will govern Thuringia after the next state election?
Sort by:
It would surprise me if the party with the most votes is not part of the governing coalition. Furthermore, Berlin wants a change.
(I don’t believe the CDU is able to deliver that but that is another story)
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the CDU in eastern german states try to form a government with the far-right AfD after the next election?
9% chance
Which coalition will govern Germany after the next federal election?
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
15% chance
Will the broadly centrist parties still have a majority after the next German Bundestag election?
63% chance
Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?
73% chance
WIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?
31% chance
Which coalition will govern Thuringia after the next state election?