Will Twitter go bankrupt before 2024?
resolved Jan 1

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@NickHeinonen Should the close date be end of 2024? It seems like a couple days into 2024 at latest would be more appropriate.

predicted YES
predicted NO


predicted YES

Should I step down as head of Twitter? I will abide by the results of this poll.


predicted YES

@AndyMartin this might substantially lower the odds of bankruptcy

predicted YES

Hard to imagine it won't be reversed, but Paul Graham got suspended from Twitter for mentioning he has a Mastodon account: https://mastodon.social/@caseynewton/109537017200425834

Seems like many more will follow

predicted NO

RIP Elonophobes

bought Ṁ0 of NO

Before = before.

sold Ṁ6 of YES

If Elon couldn't subsidize it with his personal wealth, I think it would be plausible, but it seems to me like he would be willing to do that.

bought Ṁ250 of NO

bought Ṁ90 of NO
predicted NO

Instagram had hundreds of millions of users with a dozen people, and frankly Twitter could be better run with a few dozen and an ad team than it has been for years.

Elon is shaking out all the rot of teams that never ship, the majority of staff being hall monitors and commissars, and something between user count fraud and incompetence by the anti-spam teams.

Wouldn’t be surprised if >90% turnover occurs, and even on 2b revenue (50% haircut) it’s trivial to get back to cash flow positivity after cleaning house.

@Gigacasting He is also scaring away major advertisers

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