Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market reach 20% in 2023?
63
Ṁ22k
resolved Jun 16
Resolved
YES

Will Catnee's dominance of AI risk last? Will this market get any traders besides me? Will this blatent attempt to make short term profits work? Tune in next time on Manifold Markets!

The Market in question:

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
29% chance. If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO. If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES. If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve. See also: @/Tripping/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6d…

If the displayed value of the above market ever reaches 20% before market close and after the creation of this market, then this market resolves YES. If otherwise, this market resolves NO

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predicted YES

@DylanSlagh market resolves yes

predicted YES

Almost all the limit orders have been canceled on the referenced market. Anyone with ~7000 mana can push that market to 20% And make a nice profit on this market.

@eclair4151 Thanks for the heads up

predicted YES

@eclair4151 It was 30,000 mana though

predicted YES

To be clear, this resolved YES briefly!

@eclair4151 6,000-7,000 or so mana of limit orders, but bets at 20% are bets at 5:1 odds, so it takes 5X that amount to break them.

predicted YES

@MichaelWheatley Ah, thank for the explanation that makes sense!

I don't know what I was thinking when I bought no. Sometimes I really wish I could talk to myself in the past.

At 27% at the moment.

@MaxPayne it's unclear from the description if the creator is referring to reaching it from above or from below... from the time of creation of this market I assume from above

predicted YES

@galaga the market has to pass through 20% for a yes resolution in this market. It doesn't matter from above or below. given that it is above 20% right now it has to go down to reach 20%

Well it has been at 20% before..

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr the description says after the creation of this market

Same market but 10%:

https://manifold.markets/DylanSlagh/will-the-will-ai-wipe-out-humanity?r=RHlsYW5TbGFnaA

Will the “Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?” market reach 10% in 2023?
1.9% chance. Will Catnee’s dominance of AI risk last? Will this market get any traders besides me? Will this blatent attempt to make short term profits work? Tune in next time on Manifold Markets! The Market in question: [link preview]If the displayed value of the above market ever reaches 10% bef…

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