Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market reach 20% in 2023?

63

resolved Jun 16

Resolved

YES

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Will Catnee's dominance of AI risk last? Will this market get any traders besides me? Will this blatent attempt to make short term profits work? Tune in next time on Manifold Markets!

The Market in question:

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

29% chance. If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO. If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES. If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve. See also: @/Tripping/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6d…

If the displayed value of the above market ever reaches 20% before market close and after the creation of this market, then this market resolves YES. If otherwise, this market resolves NO

Get Ṁ500 play money

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🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	Michael Wheatley	Ṁ830
2	eclair4151	Ṁ288
3	Aashiq Dheeraj	Ṁ240
4	Jelle	Ṁ111
5	k3nneth	Ṁ75

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eclair4151predicted YES

@DylanSlagh market resolves yes

eclair4151predicted YES

Almost all the limit orders have been canceled on the referenced market. Anyone with ~7000 mana can push that market to 20% And make a nice profit on this market.

5 replies

Michael Wheatleybought Ṁ10,000 of YES

@eclair4151 Thanks for the heads up

Michael Wheatleypredicted YES

@eclair4151 It was 30,000 mana though

Pat Scott🩴predicted YES

To be clear, this resolved YES briefly!

Michael Wheatleybought Ṁ2,000 of YES

@eclair4151 6,000-7,000 or so mana of limit orders, but bets at 20% are bets at 5:1 odds, so it takes 5X that amount to break them.

eclair4151predicted YES

@MichaelWheatley Ah, thank for the explanation that makes sense!

Odoacresold Ṁ31 of NO

I don't know what I was thinking when I bought no. Sometimes I really wish I could talk to myself in the past.

Max Paynebought Ṁ100 of YES

At 27% at the moment.

2 replies

@MaxPayne it's unclear from the description if the creator is referring to reaching it from above or from below... from the time of creation of this market I assume from above

Dylan Slaghpredicted YES

@galaga the market has to pass through 20% for a yes resolution in this market. It doesn't matter from above or below. given that it is above 20% right now it has to go down to reach 20%

𝐒𝕙𝕒𝕕𝕠𝕨𝕪𝐙𝕖𝕡𝕙𝕪𝕣

Well it has been at 20% before..

1 reply

Dylan Slaghpredicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr the description says after the creation of this market

Dylan Slaghbought Ṁ50 of NO

Same market but 10%:

https://manifold.markets/DylanSlagh/will-the-will-ai-wipe-out-humanity?r=RHlsYW5TbGFnaA

Will the “Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?” market reach 10% in 2023?

1.9% chance. Will Catnee’s dominance of AI risk last? Will this market get any traders besides me? Will this blatent attempt to make short term profits work? Tune in next time on Manifold Markets! The Market in question: [link preview]If the displayed value of the above market ever reaches 10% bef…

Martin Randall sold Ṁ2 NO from 99.0% to 99.1%

Catnee sold Ṁ201 NO from 96% to 99.0%

Catnee bought Ṁ100 NO from 98% to 96%

Catnee bought Ṁ100 NO from 99.0% to 98%

Irigi sold Ṁ0 NO at 99.0%

Fedor sold Ṁ1 NO at 99.0%

Michael Wheatley bought Ṁ2,000 YES from 98.7% to 99.0%

Michael Wheatley bought Ṁ10,000 YES from 90% to 98.7%

Michael Wheatley bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 85% to 90%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 85% 🤖

Michael Wheatley bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 71% to 84%

Ramble bought Ṁ15 YES from 70% to 71%

Irigi sold Ṁ30 NO from 69% to 70%

cos bought Ṁ10 YES from 68% to 69%

JGY bought Ṁ15 YES at 68%

JGY bought Ṁ10 YES at 68%

Arkin Dharawat bought Ṁ50 YES from 67% to 68%

Oskar Andersson sold Ṁ9 NO from 66% to 67%

Letian Wang bought Ṁ5 YES at 66%

Bonanzatty bought Ṁ10 YES at 66%

belikewater sold Ṁ50 YES from 67% to 66%

belikewater bought Ṁ50 YES from 66% to 67%

Aelerinya bought Ṁ40 YES from 64% to 66%

Oskar Andersson bought Ṁ10 NO from 65% to 64%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ33/Ṁ100 NO at 65% (cancelled) 🤖

Hfdidiurht Idifhthdjdi bought Ṁ126 YES from 63% to 67%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ30/Ṁ100 NO at 63% (cancelled) 🤖

Nicu Borta bought Ṁ100 YES from 61% to 65%

Louis Winter bought Ṁ10 NO from 62% to 61%

Irigi created limit order for Ṁ95 YES at 51%

Irigi bought Ṁ6 YES at 62%

Irigi bought Ṁ10 NO at 62%

Calibrated Chameleon bought Ṁ10 YES at 62%

Irigi bought Ṁ50 NO from 65% to 62%

Mira 🍎 bought Ṁ100 NO from 71% to 65%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ42/Ṁ100 YES at 71% (cancelled) 🤖

Odoacre sold Ṁ31 NO from 68% to 70%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ32/Ṁ40 NO at 68% (cancelled) 🤖

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Eugger bought Ṁ3 YES at 60%

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NunyaBidness sold Ṁ27 YES from 56% to 55%

Patrick Aupperle bought Ṁ10 YES from 55% to 56%

N. Phil Masiakowski bought Ṁ35 NO from 58% to 55%

Vitor bought Ṁ50 YES from 55% to 58%

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