Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market reach 20% in 2023?
63
resolved Jun 16
Resolved
YES

Will Catnee's dominance of AI risk last? Will this market get any traders besides me? Will this blatent attempt to make short term profits work? Tune in next time on Manifold Markets!

The Market in question:

If the displayed value of the above market ever reaches 20% before market close and after the creation of this market, then this market resolves YES. If otherwise, this market resolves NO

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eclair4151 avatar
eclair4151predicted YES

@DylanSlagh market resolves yes

eclair4151 avatar
eclair4151predicted YES

Almost all the limit orders have been canceled on the referenced market. Anyone with ~7000 mana can push that market to 20% And make a nice profit on this market.

5 replies
MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleybought Ṁ10,000 of YES

@eclair4151 Thanks for the heads up

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleypredicted YES

@eclair4151 It was 30,000 mana though

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴predicted YES

To be clear, this resolved YES briefly!

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleybought Ṁ2,000 of YES

@eclair4151 6,000-7,000 or so mana of limit orders, but bets at 20% are bets at 5:1 odds, so it takes 5X that amount to break them.

eclair4151 avatar
eclair4151predicted YES

@MichaelWheatley Ah, thank for the explanation that makes sense!

Odoacre avatar
Odoacresold Ṁ31 of NO

I don't know what I was thinking when I bought no. Sometimes I really wish I could talk to myself in the past.

MaxPayne avatar
Max Paynebought Ṁ100 of YES

At 27% at the moment.

2 replies
galaga avatar
galaga

@MaxPayne it's unclear from the description if the creator is referring to reaching it from above or from below... from the time of creation of this market I assume from above

DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slaghpredicted YES

@galaga the market has to pass through 20% for a yes resolution in this market. It doesn't matter from above or below. given that it is above 20% right now it has to go down to reach 20%

DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slaghpredicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr the description says after the creation of this market