Market resolves to successful coup d'etat. I will consider successful if regime change last more than one day.
1,000
3.00I'm currently experiencing difficulties accessing real-time information. However, based on the information provided in the BBC article, we can analyze the events based on what we know up to the last update in September 2021.
1. The article states that Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso has decreed the dissolution of the National Assembly and has called for new elections using a constitutional mechanism known as "muerte cruzada" or "cross-death"【5†source】【6†source】. This mechanism allows the President to dissolve the National Assembly under three conditions: if the President believes the legislators are hindering his ability to govern, in case of a severe political crisis and internal commotion, or when the legislative power assumes functions that do not belong to it.
2. This decision was made amid a political trial against Lasso for accusations of misappropriation of public funds, which Lasso has denied and characterized as a politically motivated maneuver to overthrow him【5†source】【15†source】【16†source】.
3. The "muerte cruzada" mechanism was introduced into the Ecuadorian Constitution in 2008 under the government of Rafael Correa and it's the first time it's been applied since then【9†source】.
4. Once this mechanism is activated, the National Electoral Council has seven days to call new legislative and presidential elections, which must be held within a maximum of 90 days from the call. Until the new National Assembly is installed, Lasso can govern by decree, but he must have prior approval from the Constitutional Court【10†source】.
5. There is controversy around this decision, with some legislators calling it unconstitutional, and the largest indigenous organization in Ecuador, CONAIE, accusing Lasso of executing a "cowardly coup d'etat with the help of the Police and Armed Forces"【13†source】.
6. Former president Rafael Correa has also called the decision "illegal" and argues that there is no state of internal commotion, only a political trial applying the Constitution【14†source】.
7. The police and members of the military have surrounded the National Assembly and other government buildings following Lasso's announcement【12†source】.
Given the nature of these events, it's important to follow updates from reliable news sources for the most recent developments. Please note that political situations can evolve rapidly and the information I've provided is based on the most recent information available in the article you provided.
@FranklinBaldo ChatGPT web browsing plugin fact check for this news https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-65623515
@FranklinBaldo Ah yes! The cross death!!! That resolved the following question this morning, but definitly not a coup. /BTE/will-the-government-of-any-country
@FranklinBaldo It might end up being a self-coup though!! /BTE/will-there-be-an-attempted-autogolp !!
@FranklinBaldo I really want to see what sources it gave you!! I just got access to the plug-ins myself and this looks like a fun way to use it!!
@BTE The information I provided was based on a single source, the URL you provided, which is a news article from BBC Mundo:
```
https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-65623515
```
This source was used for all the references in the discussion【5†source】【6†source】【7†source】【8†source】【9†source】【10†source】【11†source】【12†source】【13†source】【14†source】【15†source】【16†source】.
Due to technical difficulties, I was unable to conduct additional searches to corroborate the information from the BBC Mundo article.
Related:
https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/which-country-will-have-the-next-co
https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i
https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i-5047057f4ade
https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-there-be-an-attempted-autogolp
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-un
https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-weird-country-experience-a
https://manifold.markets/MathieuPutz/will-30000-people-die-in-a-us-civil
https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-vice-president-with-the-cabi
https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-of-the-following-weird-cou-b07b8b698192
https://manifold.markets/dreev/trump-coup-2025-conditional-on-a-de
https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-there-be-a-coup-attempt-that-k
(No way to copy-paste a market grid, so I'm just providing links.)
