Jan 1, 2024
Will there be an attempted autogolpe during 2023?
79%
chance

An autogolpe is a self-coup. January 6th is an example.

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Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting YES at 75%

Tensions rising in Türkiye, elections in June. Erdoğan is most likely already laying the groundwork behind the scenes, it's only a matter of time until some evidence comes forth as elections grow closer.

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinn

"January 6th is an example" haha thanks for the laugh

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting YES at 75%

@AlQuinn Jan 6th on its own isn’t really an autogolpe, but Trump undeniably attempted one.

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinn

@Gen Yeah, tweeting to his supporters to protest peacefully is a coup, I guess

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting YES at 75%

@AlQuinn Lmao, the autogolpe started when he denied election results, demanded results be overturned, pardoned his cronies (and himself), refused to concede, was non compliant with a transfer of power, and culminated on Jan 6th when he and his party coordinated with other organisations and members of the public to protest the results and make a show of force.

Even if you cope to the maximum possible degree, you cannot possibly believe Trump didn’t try to stay in power. He still publicly denies that he lost the election to embolden his batshit supporters, despite knowing and privately admitting there’s no basis for it.

He’s genuinely the textbook example of a failed autogolpe. He was a terrible president who literally had no understanding of the system, and entirely failed to work within it.

ForrestTaylor avatar
Forrest Taylor

@AlQuinn Yeah, as I remember from November 8 to Jan 20, Trump only told his followers to peacefully protest, and then told them to go home. That was it. Nothing else happened

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinn

@Gen

1) Questioning election results is not a crime, let alone a coup

2) The power to pardon is not any sort of new exotic/unconstitutional presidential authority

3) There is no requirement that any candidate ever concede an election

4) Strange how BLM ("Burn, Loot, Murder") or Antifa can commit arson or attack federal courthouses and for it to be labeled "mostly peaceful protests" instead of "insurrection"

I'm not a Trump fan but his pivot to challenge China (something the Biden regime has found it wise to doubled-down on) and the Abraham Accords (something he should have won the Nobel Peace Prize for) are examples of good things to come out of his administration.

ForrestTaylor avatar
Forrest Taylor

lol, trying to move to "but antifa is bad" and "but uh there were good things to come out of the Trump administration"
This is a tactic one only uses when you know you don't have an argument

ForrestTaylor avatar
Forrest Taylor

A Nobel Peace Prize for normalizing relations between Israel and the UAE and Israel and... Bahrain? What a joke.
Yeah, I remember that bloody war between Israel and the UAE, what a major threat to peace. It was all in a dream I had once

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinn

@ForrestTaylor You are missing Morocco and Sudan that joined later, and I think you underestimate the significance of normalization of relations between Israel and other ME countries. But let's just take a moment to celebrate Obama's Nobel Prize for ???

ForrestTaylor avatar
Forrest Taylor

@AlQuinn Oh I agree on that one, Obama did not deserve a Nobel Prize. Nor did Kissinger for that matter

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting YES at 75%

Yes, we all agree trumps autogolpe was a massive failure. He had no idea how the system works, or where to focus his energy.

Despite that, him weaponising all the legal means available to him (pardons, pressuring other officials to change election results, pressuring the public to protest, pressuring pence to refuse to validate, etc) is sufficient to meet an autogolpe attempt. Being a bad leader (and a bad criminal) doesn’t mean you didn’t try

If trump could have personally declared himself winner of the election he would have (he tried to) and he would have stayed leader if it were up to him. Refusing to comply with transfer of power norms, and refusing to concede, is in itself evidence of an attempted autogolpe.

Or maybe he’s just an edgy sore loser, who never wanted to stay in power? Trumples will always find a cope.

Next response from this guy: “I don’t even like trump”

Gen avatar
Genzybought Ṁ1,471 of YES

I think this market has been overlooked, and should resolve YES based on the attempted autogolpe in Brazil. Please go easy on me if I am missing something here. 😆

FranklinBaldo avatar
Franklin Baldois predicting NO at 85%

@Gen it was a coup d'etat attempt not an autogolpe attempt. Bolsonaro wasn't in power anymore.

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting YES at 85%

@FranklinBaldo It was an officially elected leader, using unofficial means to try to cling to power. You don’t have to be in power for it to classify as an autogolpe, it could be the day after an election, or like Jan 6 in the US.

FranklinBaldo avatar
Franklin Baldobought Ṁ100 of NO

@Gen Bolsonaro wasn't "official" in any capacity at the time.

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting YES at 85%

@FranklinBaldo If you lose ‘official’ power the day before, it’s still an autogolpe. Brazil mirrored US actions which is cited in the description as sufficient for resolution

All Latin reporting uses the Spanish term “autocoup” which is why I found this market had been overlooked. Literally every Spanish or Portuguese speaker has been bombarded with this word lately in regards to Brazil. It absolutely qualifies by every measure of the term - and outlined resolution criteria

FranklinBaldo avatar
Franklin Baldois predicting NO at 85%

@Gen can you provide some examples?

FranklinBaldo avatar
Franklin Baldois predicting NO at 85%

@Gen to be clear: it was a week later, not a day. Lula already have sign decrees, laws, nominate ministers, etc

Gen avatar
Genzybought Ṁ6 of YES

i gotta sleep, but the only leeway I could see here is that if his “autocoup” attempt that failed miserably, was actually entirely concluded by Jan1 (to not meet criteria)

But it is undeniable he attempted an autogolpe, Jan8 was the final evidence of his desperation. Not a standalone event

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting YES at 85%

the key here just being that it has to be “attempted” which he absolutely did. He didn’t sit back relaxing and then suddenly lose the election and go oh guess it’s coup time

Autocoup attempts for months and months within Brazil, which is the same as in the US, which similarly climaxed in an incredible failure in early January

amoebus avatar
amoebus

The questions says "in 2023", so I don't see how this can resolve positively: Either it was in 2022, then it doesn't count because it's not 2023. Or it was in 2023, but Bolsonaro ceased to be president at the end of 2022, it's not an autoglove.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards
Will there be an attempted autogolpe during 2023?
BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

There was one today in Peru.