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Autogolpe

[See edit history for misleading information]

@RobertCousineau It’s listed on the self-coup Wikipedia as an ongoing autogolpe. Resolve this shit YES

@Gen i am disappointingly blind.

@RobertCousineau You made a compelling argument but your own references were your undoing

Fuck me https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/guatemala-president-elect-arevalo-suspends-participation-transition-2023-09-13/

Guatemala President-elect Arevalo suspends participation in transition

Guatemalan President-elect Bernardo Arevalo has temporarily suspended his participation in the government transition, he said in a news conference on Tuesday, as actions by authorities fueled doubts around the transfer of power.

@Gen This is exactly how you expect one of these to start! It’s exactly what Trump did.

Brian you're yo-yoing me loooool

I think this counts?

@Joshua I think you don’t do this unless you have ideas about autogolpe but it hasn’t happened yet. When is the formal transition, anyone??

https://www.axios.com/2023/08/24/guatemala-president-elect-arevalo-challenges-torres

Does the autogolpe have to happen at the transition like January 6th?

Hmmm the more I read the more dubious I am that this counts actually.

@BTE Could we get a more detailed definition of what you would and would not count? This seems to be an illegal action taken against the rightful winner of the election, but the current government denies that they're behind it or are trying to remain in power. Where's the line?

@Joshua It’s a good starting point but so far it’s “temporary suspension”

Maybe he’s fixing a serious issue and then things will resume? (Clueless)

Why is this going up so much? Is there news?

How does this factor in? https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuadors-president-lasso-vows-dissolve-congress-if-it-tries-impeach-him-ft-2023-04-18/

He's not up for election but he's clinging to power, how low will he go?

@Gen I am starting to think the cross death might also be an autogolpe. I think it depends how this one week interim period plays out.

@BTE I wasn't going to make the argument (yet) because there's a lot of potential abuse which is yet to be realized - though it would truly be wild if they can quietly decide a new leader while everyone quietly resigns, and elections are held.

I agree 100%, best to wait and see how it goes. Congrats on the big win on the other market - I really didn't think there was much hope of a cross death, which is why I was fighting so hard on the other points 😁 fun as always, thanks for the political markets.

@Gen Thanks! I have decided to duplicate that same market every month indefinitely because it was so much fun!! I will however try to clear up the resolution criteria first.

Related:

https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/which-country-will-have-the-next-co

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i

https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i-5047057f4ade

https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-there-be-an-attempted-autogolp

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-un

https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-weird-country-experience-a

https://manifold.markets/MathieuPutz/will-30000-people-die-in-a-us-civil

https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-vice-president-with-the-cabi

https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-of-the-following-weird-cou-b07b8b698192

https://manifold.markets/dreev/trump-coup-2025-conditional-on-a-de

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-there-be-a-coup-attempt-that-k

(No way to copy-paste a market grid, so I'm just providing links.)

Tensions rising in Türkiye, elections in June. Erdoğan is most likely already laying the groundwork behind the scenes, it's only a matter of time until some evidence comes forth as elections grow closer.

"January 6th is an example" haha thanks for the laugh

@AlQuinn Jan 6th on its own isn’t really an autogolpe, but Trump undeniably attempted one.

@Gen Yeah, tweeting to his supporters to protest peacefully is a coup, I guess

@AlQuinn Lmao, the autogolpe started when he denied election results, demanded results be overturned, pardoned his cronies (and himself), refused to concede, was non compliant with a transfer of power, and culminated on Jan 6th when he and his party coordinated with other organisations and members of the public to protest the results and make a show of force.

Even if you cope to the maximum possible degree, you cannot possibly believe Trump didn’t try to stay in power. He still publicly denies that he lost the election to embolden his batshit supporters, despite knowing and privately admitting there’s no basis for it.

He’s genuinely the textbook example of a failed autogolpe. He was a terrible president who literally had no understanding of the system, and entirely failed to work within it.

@AlQuinn Yeah, as I remember from November 8 to Jan 20, Trump only told his followers to peacefully protest, and then told them to go home. That was it. Nothing else happened

@Gen

1) Questioning election results is not a crime, let alone a coup

2) The power to pardon is not any sort of new exotic/unconstitutional presidential authority

3) There is no requirement that any candidate ever concede an election

4) Strange how BLM ("Burn, Loot, Murder") or Antifa can commit arson or attack federal courthouses and for it to be labeled "mostly peaceful protests" instead of "insurrection"

I'm not a Trump fan but his pivot to challenge China (something the Biden regime has found it wise to doubled-down on) and the Abraham Accords (something he should have won the Nobel Peace Prize for) are examples of good things to come out of his administration.

lol, trying to move to "but antifa is bad" and "but uh there were good things to come out of the Trump administration"
This is a tactic one only uses when you know you don't have an argument

A Nobel Peace Prize for normalizing relations between Israel and the UAE and Israel and... Bahrain? What a joke.
Yeah, I remember that bloody war between Israel and the UAE, what a major threat to peace. It was all in a dream I had once

@ForrestTaylor You are missing Morocco and Sudan that joined later, and I think you underestimate the significance of normalization of relations between Israel and other ME countries. But let's just take a moment to celebrate Obama's Nobel Prize for ???

@AlQuinn Oh I agree on that one, Obama did not deserve a Nobel Prize. Nor did Kissinger for that matter

Yes, we all agree trumps autogolpe was a massive failure. He had no idea how the system works, or where to focus his energy.

Despite that, him weaponising all the legal means available to him (pardons, pressuring other officials to change election results, pressuring the public to protest, pressuring pence to refuse to validate, etc) is sufficient to meet an autogolpe attempt. Being a bad leader (and a bad criminal) doesn’t mean you didn’t try

If trump could have personally declared himself winner of the election he would have (he tried to) and he would have stayed leader if it were up to him. Refusing to comply with transfer of power norms, and refusing to concede, is in itself evidence of an attempted autogolpe.

Or maybe he’s just an edgy sore loser, who never wanted to stay in power? Trumples will always find a cope.

Next response from this guy: “I don’t even like trump”