Resolves positively if more than 30,000 people die in a US civil war acc. to credible sources (Metaculus definition) before 1st Jan 2043.
At least 25,000 of these people should be killed by other US residents as opposed to being killed by people from another nation. Deaths by drones or other AI-controlled weapons count if and only if they were intentionally caused by US residents.
Edit 3rd Feb 2023: Something will count as a civil war if all of the following are true:
there is military action taken by some part of the country against some other part of the country. This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian.
different factions are fighting for power to rule/"liberate" (parts of) the country.
1,000Related:
https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/which-country-will-have-the-next-co
https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i
https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i-5047057f4ade
https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-there-be-an-attempted-autogolp
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-un
https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-weird-country-experience-a
https://manifold.markets/MathieuPutz/will-30000-people-die-in-a-us-civil
https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-vice-president-with-the-cabi
https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-of-the-following-weird-cou-b07b8b698192
https://manifold.markets/dreev/trump-coup-2025-conditional-on-a-de
https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-there-be-a-coup-attempt-that-k
(No way to copy-paste a market grid, so I'm just providing links.)