Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043?
Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043?
8
170Ṁ6052042
15%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves positively if more than 30,000 people die in a US civil war acc. to credible sources (Metaculus definition) before 1st Jan 2043.
At least 25,000 of these people should be killed by other US residents as opposed to being killed by people from another nation. Deaths by drones or other AI-controlled weapons count if and only if they were intentionally caused by US residents.
Edit 3rd Feb 2023: Something will count as a civil war if all of the following are true:
there is military action taken by some part of the country against some other part of the country. This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian.
different factions are fighting for power to rule/"liberate" (parts of) the country.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
12% chance
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
25% chance
The chances of US civil war this year?
5% chance
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
35% chance
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
44% chance
Will more people die in wars in 2024 than in 2023?
65% chance
Will there be a civil war in the US in the next 20 years?
9% chance
Will the US will have a Civil War by the end of 2028?
9% chance
Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?
8% chance
NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030? (No) → Second US Civil War Before 2031
5% chance