This is part of a series of markets. The derivative market of this will resolve to the weighted average of how this panel of markets resolve. Each of us are allowed to resolve to a percentage, if deemed appropriate. Each of us are allowed to set our own standards for how these should resolve
Please duplicate this market, and if I vaguely trust you, I will add you to the list for the derivative
This market resolves YES if anything at the scale or greater of Jan 6 happens.
This market resolves YES if state legislators override the popular vote to elect a president of a different party, regardless of whether it affects the election
This market resolves YES if any states are struck from the electoral college vote
This market resolves otherwise to my confidence that something like a coup occurred. If I am 20% sure there was a coup, I will resolve to 20%. If I think this is less than 5% odds, I will resolve to NO.
If a Republican is elected without triggering any of the above clauses or my discretion, this resolves N/A.
I will not trade in this market. If I do so accidentally, all profits shall be donated in the charity section
Related questions
Related:
https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/which-country-will-have-the-next-co
https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i
https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i-5047057f4ade
https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-there-be-an-attempted-autogolp
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-un
https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-weird-country-experience-a
https://manifold.markets/MathieuPutz/will-30000-people-die-in-a-us-civil
https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-vice-president-with-the-cabi
https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-of-the-following-weird-cou-b07b8b698192
https://manifold.markets/dreev/trump-coup-2025-conditional-on-a-de
https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-there-be-a-coup-attempt-that-k
(No way to copy-paste a market grid, so I'm just providing links.)
This is really smart. I have something like this at https://manifold.markets/dreev/trump-coup-2025-conditional-on-a-de but just before seeing yours I made it official there that January 6th, 2021 half-counted as a coup attempt. Not sure if that makes my market close enough to be included. (I just updated the description there to refer to this market explicitly.)
PS: The more I think about it, saying that January 6th half-counted seems close enough to what you've specified here. Whatever happens in 2025 won't be literally identical so it's going to be a judgment call whether it was more blatant (in which case this is a YES) or less blatant (NO). In the unlikely event that 2021 vs 2025 really seem perfectly equivalent, I might resolve to PROB at 50% and you to YES (100%) but that's a pretty tiny divergence.
