Conditional on a democrat winning in 2024, will I (wasabipesto) think some subset of republicans attempted a coup before the first 3 months of the new administration?
Mini
7
425
Apr 21
10%
chance

This is part of @LivInTheLookingGlass 's series of markets.

If a Republican wins the race, this resolves N/A. Otherwise, three months after the new administration begins I will resolve this market to how much I would agree with the statement "republicans seriously attempted a coup".

I will not own shares in this market (I bought some originally before implementing this policy but sold them immediately).

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

I think I like how you've scoped this prediction better than mine! For comparison: https://manifold.markets/dreev/trump-coup-2025-conditional-on-a-de

To further clarify this market, how do you characterize January 6th, 2021? (I went with "50% of a coup attempt" for my market.)

PS: Ah, I see this was @LivInTheLookingGlass's idea -- lemme repeat my comment there.

@dreev I would resolve something like January 6 between 30 and 60%. If something seems like a coup I will do a fair amount of research into the event before resolving. Some factors I will prioritize include the number of people involved, amount of forethought or planning involved, and potential impact.

As a disclaimer I am more likely to resolve to a probability than YES due to my belief that any serious attempt at an actual coup would result in a successful coup, and therefore a failed coup is evidence that it was not serious. However, this is a weakly-held belief that may change over the next few years.

2020 was a better year to try this, presidency is a big advantage.

Conditional on a democrat winning in 2024, will I (wasabipesto) think some subset of republicans attempted a coup before the first 3 months of the new administration?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

More related questions