This is part of @LivInTheLookingGlass 's series of markets.
If a Republican wins the race, this resolves N/A. Otherwise, three months after the new administration begins I will resolve this market to how much I would agree with the statement "republicans seriously attempted a coup".
I will not own shares in this market (I bought some originally before implementing this policy but sold them immediately).
1,000People are also trading
Related:
https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/which-country-will-have-the-next-co
https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i
https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i-5047057f4ade
https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-there-be-an-attempted-autogolp
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-un
https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-weird-country-experience-a
https://manifold.markets/MathieuPutz/will-30000-people-die-in-a-us-civil
https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-vice-president-with-the-cabi
https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-of-the-following-weird-cou-b07b8b698192
https://manifold.markets/dreev/trump-coup-2025-conditional-on-a-de
https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-there-be-a-coup-attempt-that-k
(No way to copy-paste a market grid, so I'm just providing links.)
I think I like how you've scoped this prediction better than mine! For comparison: https://manifold.markets/dreev/trump-coup-2025-conditional-on-a-de
To further clarify this market, how do you characterize January 6th, 2021? (I went with "50% of a coup attempt" for my market.)
@dreev I would resolve something like January 6 between 30 and 60%. If something seems like a coup I will do a fair amount of research into the event before resolving. Some factors I will prioritize include the number of people involved, amount of forethought or planning involved, and potential impact.
As a disclaimer I am more likely to resolve to a probability than YES due to my belief that any serious attempt at an actual coup would result in a successful coup, and therefore a failed coup is evidence that it was not serious. However, this is a weakly-held belief that may change over the next few years.
