What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon?
29
1kṀ3219
2031
22%
Saudi Arabia
12%
Other
10%
Iran
9%
Poland
9%
Canada
7%
South Korea
5%
Ukraine
4%
Sweden
4%
Australia
3%
Japan
3%
Brazil
3%
Germany
3%
Argentina
3%
Turkey
1.7%
Taiwan
1%
N/A

Both local development of a nuke and the receipt of a nuke by other means will resolve Yes. A nuke that legally belongs to another country but is consensually stored and ready to use in the territory or on weapons platforms belonging to a new country will resolve Yes, as will any other new or revealed nuke-sharing.

So if the Cuban Missile Crisis happened tomorrow, Cuba would resolve Yes. The same for the First Taiwan Straight Crisis. Likewise, Canada being revealed to secretly keep US-owned nukes in their territory would resolve Yes even though they were previously denied. Past shared weapons do not count.

When there is ambiguity as to whether a country actually has nukes or not, non-proliferation groups will be given priority as to their opinion. If you add a country, please check that they are not already widely understood to currently have or host nukes.

  • Update 2025-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Clarification:

    • Being nuked (i.e. a country being attacked with a nuclear weapon) does not count as coming into possession of a nuclear weapon, even if it is only temporary.

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