What will be the next country to come into possession of a nuclear weapon?
Basic
19
Ṁ1706
2031
17%
Other
15%
Iran
11%
Poland
9%
Germany
8%
Saudi Arabia
5%
Sweden
5%
Turkey
5%
Australia
4%
Brazil
4%
South Korea
4%
Argentina
4%
Ukraine
2%
Taiwan
2%
N/A
2%
Japan
1.6%
Canada

Both local development of a nuke and the receipt of a nuke by other means will resolve Yes. A nuke that legally belongs to another country but is consensually stored and ready to use in the territory or on weapons platforms belonging to a new country will resolve Yes, as will any other new or revealed nuke-sharing.

So if the Cuban Missile Crisis happened tomorrow, Cuba would resolve Yes. The same for the First Taiwan Straight Crisis. Likewise, Canada being revealed to secretly keep US-owned nukes in their territory would resolve Yes even though they were previously denied. Past shared weapons do not count.

When there is ambiguity as to whether a country actually has nukes or not, non-proliferation groups will be given priority as to their opinion. If you add a country, please check that they are not already widely understood to currently have or host nukes.

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Turkey already has NATO-shared nukes. Not sure if you will want to resolve that YES or NA

@JoshuaWilkes I see a different user added Turkey

@JoshuaWilkes Edited it to say N/A but I don’t think early partial N/A is a thing for this kind of market. Obviously based on the description it’s invalid.

@Panfilo someone has added Germany and Turkey again

@JoshuaWilkes Well I can't N/A without getting mods, and it's a mini market from before the pivot, so I may just let people who don't read the description spend 10 mana on it.

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