What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon?
27
1kṀ2447
2031
22%
Saudi Arabia
15%
Iran
11%
Other
9%
Poland
8%
Canada
6%
South Korea
5%
Ukraine
4%
Sweden
3%
Australia
3%
Japan
3%
Germany
3%
Brazil
3%
Argentina
2%
Turkey
1.7%
N/A
1.6%
Taiwan

Both local development of a nuke and the receipt of a nuke by other means will resolve Yes. A nuke that legally belongs to another country but is consensually stored and ready to use in the territory or on weapons platforms belonging to a new country will resolve Yes, as will any other new or revealed nuke-sharing.

So if the Cuban Missile Crisis happened tomorrow, Cuba would resolve Yes. The same for the First Taiwan Straight Crisis. Likewise, Canada being revealed to secretly keep US-owned nukes in their territory would resolve Yes even though they were previously denied. Past shared weapons do not count.

When there is ambiguity as to whether a country actually has nukes or not, non-proliferation groups will be given priority as to their opinion. If you add a country, please check that they are not already widely understood to currently have or host nukes.

  • Update 2025-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Clarification:

    • Being nuked (i.e. a country being attacked with a nuclear weapon) does not count as coming into possession of a nuclear weapon, even if it is only temporary.

Geopolitics
Ukraine
Taiwan
South Korea
Iran
Canada
Nuclear
Saudi Arabia
Poland
Nuclear Risk
Japan
Brazil
Nuclear Proliferation
Nuclear War
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

What country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?
Which of these twelve countries will have at least one known nuclear weapon in their possession at the end of 2025?
When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place?
Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025?
In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first?
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025? (Tests included)
9% chance
Will a new nation possess nuclear weapons by 2025?
4% chance
Will we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade?
10% chance
What country will first denote a nuclear weapon in combat?
Which countries will increase the size of their nuclear warhead stockpile in 2024?
Sort by:

It seems the phrase "receipt of a nuke by other means" is broad enough to include those delivered on warheads. Is that intentional?

@ShankarSivarajan Being nuked does not count as having a nuke, however briefly.

Turkey already has NATO-shared nukes. Not sure if you will want to resolve that YES or NA

@JoshuaWilkes I see a different user added Turkey

@JoshuaWilkes Edited it to say N/A but I don’t think early partial N/A is a thing for this kind of market. Obviously based on the description it’s invalid.

@Panfilo someone has added Germany and Turkey again

@JoshuaWilkes Well I can't N/A without getting mods, and it's a mini market from before the pivot, so I may just let people who don't read the description spend 10 mana on it.

People are also trading

What country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?
Which of these twelve countries will have at least one known nuclear weapon in their possession at the end of 2025?
When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place?
Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025?
In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first?
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025? (Tests included)
9% chance
Will a new nation possess nuclear weapons by 2025?
4% chance
Will we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade?
10% chance
What country will first denote a nuclear weapon in combat?
Which countries will increase the size of their nuclear warhead stockpile in 2024?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy