Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Mini
26
4.9k
2040
81%
Haiti
76%
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
73%
Myanmar
66%
Mali
59%
Libya
52%
Thailand
52%
Pakistan
51%
Belarus
46%
Chad
45%
Afghanistan
44%
Ethiopia
43%
Iran
43%
Russia
41%
Nicaragua
41%
Guatemala
41%
Syria
36%
Nigeria
35%
Venezuela
31%
Egypt
31%
Uganda

Resolves the same way as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17829/coup-detat-likelihood/, unless a country is not listed there, in which case it will be resolved according to the same criteria and in the same spirit.

Copying the criteria from there:

A coup d'etat is an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority. Coups are often proceeded by political unrest/instability, and can often serve as a turning point in a nation's history. Wide speculation exists on the possibility of coups in various countries.

Resolution Criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, before 12:00 AM on January 1, 2040, the majority of these sources unambiguously report that a successful coup d'etat has taken place in the country in question:

  • The Economist (United Kingdom)

  • Reuters (United Kingdom)

  • WION (India)

  • The Associated Press (United States)

  • The BBC (United Kingdom)

  • Al Jazeera (Qatar)

  • South China Morning Post (Hong Kong/People's Republic of China)

  • The Institute for the Study of War (United States)

  • International Crisis Group (Belgium)

  • TASS (Russia)

  • CGTN (People's Republic of China)

  • PressTV (Iran)

  • Jerusalem Post (Israel)

  • The United Nations (International)

Given the number of sources, forecasters should not expect Metaculus staff to do an exhaustive search of each resolution source. Each question will resolve No by default, unless an initial search shows some stories referencing a coup d'stat, in which case Metaculus staff will check all of the sources above.

Due to the nature of coups d'etat, media outlets are frequently taken over or manipulated in order to serve the interests of certain political factions. As such, if an alleged coup d'etat takes place in a country in which one or more of the above organizations are based, only sources NOT based in that country will be considered for the resolution of this question. For example, if an alleged coup d'etat were to take place in the United Kingdom, reporting from The Economist, Reuters, and the BBC would not be considered for resolving this question, and it would only be resolved as Yes if a majority of the remaining organizations listed above reported that a coup d'etat had taken place in the UK.

Fine Print

If an equal number of credible sources report that a coup d'etat has taken place in the country in question, and the remainder do not, the question resolves Ambiguously.

In the event that one or more of the resolution sources become defunct, it will be removed from the list and not considered in resolving this question. To preserve this question's neutrality, a replacement source will only be selected by Metaculus if 5 or more of the resolution sources become defunct, such that there are never less than 10 of them.

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Haiti

@JonasVollmer Is there even a d'etat to coup here? Rephrasing: what if one of these states have failed, and someone gains defacto control. Is this still a coup for this market?

@GazDownright not sure. Ask Metaculus, I'm deferring to their resolution!

@JonasVollmer Got it. Perhaps add a [Metaculus] to the market title to help new viewers?

bought Ṁ150 Answer #7661986c21a1 NO

Let me know if there's a particular country that you'd like me to add!

bought Ṁ10 Answer #b9878ef7f387 NO
bought Ṁ3 Pakistan YES

@JonasVollmer All of them

bought Ṁ30 Myanmar NO
bought Ṁ50 Myanmar YES

@JonasVollmer thanks but weird that you pre-empt stock before the person asking for the country

@RatUziCat in my case, fortunately I was going to bet yes, so that's great, but still

@RatUziCat I mean I end up paying a bunch of Mana for the liquidity in that market, and I could've added it from the get go. But glad to hear that it was fine with you