
Which country will abolish monarchy next?
20
1.2kṀ1035Dec 31
27%
🇯🇲 Jamaica
14%
Belize 🇧🇿
14%
12%
Grenada 🇬🇩
10%
🇳🇿 New Zealand
9%
🇦🇺 Australia
3%
🇪🇸 Spain
3%
🇹🇭 Thailand
3%
🇳🇱 Netherlands
3%
🇧🇪 Belgium
2%
🇨🇦 Canada
2%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
Resolution Criteria
Definition: Abolition means the formal end of the monarchy and the transition to any non-monarchical government (republic, non-monarchical autocracy, etc.).
Confirmation: An official government declaration or constitutional amendment abolishing the monarchy.
Scope: Any recognized sovereign state with a current monarchical system.
Timing: The market will stay open until such events occur.
Verification: At least two renowned international news sources must report the official transition.
United Kingdom Clause: If the UK abolishes its monarchy for itself and other Commonwealth nations follow, causing a tie, it resolves to ‘UK’ alone.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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