Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?

WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Developed.

List of WEIRD countries for the purposes of this market:

  1. Australia

  2. Austria

  3. Belgium

  4. Canada

  5. Czech Republic

  6. Denmark

  7. Estonia

  8. France

  9. Greece

  10. Germany

  11. Iceland

  12. Italy

  13. Latvia

  14. Luxembourg

  15. Netherlands

  16. New Zealand

  17. Norway

  18. Spain

  19. Sweden

  20. Switzerland

  21. United Kingdom

  22. United States

Successful means the attackers must stay in government for more than six months.

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Would a successful invasion by another country count?

predicts NO

@YaakovSaxon Only if the coup was part of or precipitated the invasion; an annexation is not a coup, even if it happens quickly.

How would you count a self-coup?

predicts NO

@Lorxus Palace coups count, as long as it they are visibly extralegal. I would not mark Hitler's Enabling Act as a successful coup, for example, even though it led to regime change.

@DeanValentine Ah. No bet, then. Almost all my probability mass for "any of these countries have an abrupt regime change" is in "someone does a LOT of lawfare about it".