Would a successful invasion by another country count?

@YaakovSaxon Only if the coup was part of or precipitated the invasion; an annexation is not a coup, even if it happens quickly.

Related:

https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/which-country-will-have-the-next-co

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i

https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i-5047057f4ade

https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-there-be-an-attempted-autogolp

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-un

https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-weird-country-experience-a

https://manifold.markets/MathieuPutz/will-30000-people-die-in-a-us-civil

https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-vice-president-with-the-cabi

https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-of-the-following-weird-cou-b07b8b698192

https://manifold.markets/dreev/trump-coup-2025-conditional-on-a-de

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-there-be-a-coup-attempt-that-k

(No way to copy-paste a market grid, so I'm just providing links.)

How would you count a self-coup?

@Lorxus Palace coups count, as long as it they are visibly extralegal. I would not mark Hitler's Enabling Act as a successful coup, for example, even though it led to regime change.

@DeanValentine Ah. No bet, then. Almost all my probability mass for "any of these countries have an abrupt regime change" is in "someone does a LOT of lawfare about it".